Recently, when I was browsing Twitter, the most frequent pop-up messages, aside from various news about Virtual, were Michael Saylor's famous quote that has been hyped by various media:

“The Bear Market Is Not Coming Back And Bitcoin Is Going To $1 Million.”

This was his statement during an interview with Bloomberg.

Upon seeing such a statement, my first feeling was: as a public expression, it is probably very difficult for the general public to understand.

The points of confusion are:

What is the definition of a bear market?

What time frame is used to measure that the bear market is no longer present?

By what time frame is Bitcoin expected to reach $1 million?

So, I read the article quoted by Bitcoin Magazine (see reference link at the end). However, in this article, I did not see his statements regarding the two time frames mentioned above.

Michael Saylor can be considered a steadfast veteran in the crypto ecosystem, and I have no doubt about his faith in Bitcoin. I believe that with his belief in Bitcoin, his subconscious notion of a bear market no longer existing and Bitcoin reaching $1 million should be measured over a period of ten years or several decades.

If measured over a time frame of ten years or several decades, I completely agree with his view, especially in agreeing with his statement that Bitcoin will reach $1 million, and I believe that in our lifetime, we will witness this miracle.

However, this process will definitely not be smooth sailing. For example, if measured over a four-year time frame, I still believe that Bitcoin will experience one round after another of bear markets—Bitcoin's price will rise in a wave-like manner, alternating between bull and bear markets over the next ten years or several decades.

But for 90% of the general public, it is almost impossible to consistently view the upcoming major trends of Bitcoin with a ten-year or several-decade standard while ignoring the fluctuations in between.

I believe that in the next bear market, when Bitcoin's price plummets from its peak, the vast majority of ordinary participants will still be pessimistic, desperate, and even questioning life.

In fact, some of the things happening now are sowing the seeds for the future pessimism and despair of the public. The most typical example is that more and more listed companies are now starting to buy Bitcoin, with the more cautious ones using their own cash, while the more aggressive ones are raising funds or even borrowing.

These companies initially started as American companies, then spread to Japanese companies, and recently this phenomenon has begun to spread among listed companies in Hong Kong.

I have observed certain companies listed in Hong Kong that have already bought or are about to buy Bitcoin. From their backgrounds, their businesses have nothing to do with the crypto ecosystem, and even have no relation to the internet.

I find it hard to believe that such companies can have a firm belief in Bitcoin, can still believe in Bitcoin's hope when it experiences a future crash, and can withstand the pressure from shareholders and the board of directors blaming management for the company's stock price being affected by Bitcoin's price drop.

Let alone buying Bitcoin, even buying gold, which is already a highly consensus risk-hedging asset, is difficult to withstand pressure when faced with a decline in gold prices.

In summary, for the vast majority of people and the majority of companies that are currently actively buying Bitcoin, their purchases are merely following the trend, a kind of herd effect of “everyone else is doing it, so I will too.” On the day Bitcoin reaches $1 million in the future, the vast majority of those currently buying will also not be able to make money from it.

Reference link:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/michael-saylor-the-bear-market-is-not-coming-back-and-bitcoin-is-going-to-1-million

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