Recently, former U.S. President Trump has once again become the focus of the market with his suggestion for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 200 basis points, undoubtedly adding new variables to the already complex global macroeconomic landscape. Amid the intertwining factors of inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies, the digital asset market is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. This article will delve into the current macro environment and explore its impact on institutional investors' participation in the digital asset space.

1. Trump's Call for Rate Cuts and the Fed's Policy Dilemma

On June 12, Trump made consecutive statements, not only suggesting that the Federal Reserve cut rates by 200 basis points but also emphasizing the positive impact of lower rates on U.S. short-term debt. He stated that he would not dismiss Fed Chairman Powell as long as he could achieve rate cuts. This statement undoubtedly puts direct pressure on the Fed's current monetary policy.

Although Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating cautious optimism about the economic outlook, the Fed still faces challenges in balancing inflation and economic growth. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% month-on-month in May, below expectations, suggesting that inflation seems to be under control in the short term.

However, HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that this may only be a result of companies digesting tariff pressures or relying on inventory buffers, and a new round of price increases may still be on the horizon in the coming months. Meanwhile, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 30-year yield at 4.91%, indicating that funding cost pressures still exist. Trump's call for rate cuts will undoubtedly further test the Fed's independence and decision-making wisdom.

2. The Complex Impact of Inflation Data and Trade Policies

A report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the May core Producer Price Index (PPI) data fell short of expectations, with moderate costs for goods and services. Although the current high tariffs have not significantly impacted the American public, economists warn that as companies attempt to avoid further softening of profit margins, price pressures may intensify in the second half of the year. PPI data indicates that profit margins for wholesalers and retailers expanded in May, particularly in the automotive and machinery wholesale sectors. This highlights the uncertainty of trade policies' impact on prices and demand.

QCP Capital noted that the market welcomed tentative progress in U.S.-China relations, as President Trump announced a partial withdrawal of proposed tariff plans. However, optimistic sentiment remains subdued, as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick's tough stance on technology exports clearly stated that the U.S. "will not provide China with advanced chips," underscoring the trend of global supply chain differentiation. The market is increasingly incorporating this factor into the pricing dynamics of cross-border trade. This complexity makes the inflation outlook and the impact of trade frictions on the economy even more unpredictable.

3. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Risk Aversion

The escalation of geopolitical tensions has significantly impacted global financial markets. As nuclear negotiations have stalled, the U.S. has withdrawn diplomatic personnel from the Middle East, and Washington has received warnings that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering a sharp reaction in the oil market. Investors have turned to defensive assets, leading to a sell-off in risk assets.

In the previous days, Bitcoin surged above $110,000, with buying concentrated during Asian trading hours, primarily driven by short-term speculative funds, with no signs of long-term institutional accumulation yet. QCP Capital analyzes that this round of rebound is more driven by the dual factors of "easing inflation + Asian speculation." However, the intensification of geopolitical risks has suppressed market risk appetite, bringing uncertainty to the short-term trend of digital assets.

4. Implications of the Macro Environment for Institutional Participation in Digital Assets

Despite a slight market pullback, QCP Capital believes that the current macro environment still favors further institutional participation in digital assets and capital allocation.

First, the temporary easing of inflation pressures provides the Federal Reserve with greater policy flexibility. If expectations for rate cuts strengthen further in the future, it will reduce the attractiveness of traditional assets, prompting funds to seek higher-return alternative assets, including digital assets. Second, the differentiation of global supply chains and the uncertainty of trade policies pose more challenges for traditional investments, while digital assets, as an emerging asset class, may offer institutions new risk hedging and diversification investment options due to their decentralized and globalized characteristics. Finally, although geopolitical tensions may trigger short-term volatility, in the long run, digital assets, as a non-sovereign asset, may attract more attention for their value storage and anti-inflation properties amid increasing uncertainty. After weighing risks and returns, institutional investors may still increase their allocation to digital assets.

Conclusion:

Trump's call for rate cuts, complex inflation data, evolving trade policies, and tense geopolitical situations collectively form the intricate picture of the current global macro economy. Although the market may face volatility in the short term, in the long run, the evolution of these macro factors, especially the demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, will continue to drive institutional investors' attention and allocation to digital assets. The digital asset market is gradually shifting from being retail-driven to institutionalized, and every change in the macro environment will serve as a catalyst for its maturation and development.

Related: Trump Discusses Cryptocurrency Plans at Coinbase Summit

Original: “Trump Urges Fed to Cut Rates by 200 Basis Points: How Does the Macro Environment Affect Digital Asset Investment?”

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