Actually, I personally resonate with what Brother Guilin said about $BTC. Recently, while chatting with many old friends, I found that most of their first pot of gold either came from Bitcoin or from ICOs. Especially, some friends are still holding onto them now, but this is indeed a counterintuitive thing. There have been many ups and downs in between, and to be honest, those who can hold onto it all the way are basically people who are not short on money.
At the very least, they can live well without these BTC, or they already have a lot of BTC, selling all the way to now while still having some left. What we see in the data is the same; for such a long time, in most cases, BTC has gradually flowed to long-term and high-net-worth investors.
I still remember many friends telling me that coming to the crypto space was to change their fate, not just to earn a one or two times return. But in reality, holding BTC is indeed the simplest "investment logic in the crypto space." Of course, I am talking about investment logic, not trading logic.
Investment and trading should still have a significant difference, but the essence is to make money. So I differ slightly from Brother Guilin; most people may not be able to do trading well.
In traditional U.S. stocks, research by institutions like Vanguard, Morningstar, and Dalbar over the years has concluded:
The average annual return for retail investors is about 4%-6%, far below the long-term annualized 8%-10% of the S&P 500. The reason is that frequent trading, timing failures, chasing highs and cutting losses, FOMO, and other behaviors erode returns.
Over 80%-90% of day traders lose money or exit the market within three years. Only less than 10% can achieve long-term stable profits (data from Barclays and FINRA). The more frequently one trades, the lower the win rate, known as the "trader's death curve."
ETF/index fund investors and long-term holders outperform most retail investors. Passive investors outperform over 70% of active fund managers over a 10-year period. If one holds the S&P 500 ETF for over 10 years, most years can yield positive returns. (This data is surprisingly consistent with $BTC.)
Among institutional funds like hedge funds, pensions, and sovereign funds, about 40% to 60% of fund managers cannot outperform the S&P 500 index in the long term. However, their win rate is much higher than that of ordinary retail investors, and they have stronger risk resistance.
Therefore, it is difficult for most people to make money through active trading, while those who truly make money consistently over the long term are mostly disciplined index investors or a very small number of high-level investors.
To put it bluntly, according to statistics from cryptocurrency exchanges, 70% to 90% of active traders lose money within a year. Among high-frequency leveraged traders, over 95% incur long-term losses.
Glassnode's on-chain data analysis shows that buying at the end of a bull market and selling in a bear market is common behavior among retail investors. Long-term profit-makers are often the "HODLer + bear market accumulation" group.
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