The US stablecoin bill has been rejected; will the cooling of regulation affect the restart of the altcoin season?

CN
14 hours ago

Since Trump returned to the White House, the stablecoin bill, which has been receiving a lot of attention and can be described as smooth sailing, has recently encountered setbacks. The "GENIUS Act," formally known as the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Innovation Framework for Stablecoins in the U.S.," is a piece of legislation proposed by the U.S. Senate on February 4, 2025. It aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for "payment stablecoins" within the United States to promote financial innovation, protect consumers, prevent illegal financial activities, and reinforce the dollar's dominant position in the global financial system.

This landmark cryptocurrency bill faced unexpected obstacles during negotiations, as nine key Democratic senators publicly stated on May 3 that they would not support the revised version proposed by Republicans the previous week. On May 9, the Senate voted down the "Stablecoin Innovation and Security Act" by a margin of 48 to 49, with Democrats collectively rejecting the motion to advance the bill. This legislation aims to establish the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the dollar, which is one of the focal points of Trump's cryptocurrency policy.

Also today, the long-standing case between Ripple and the SEC finally came to a close, and its connections to American political groups were brought to light by Democrats, who publicly emphasized the need to prohibit Trump's group from participating in cryptocurrency. With conflicts of interest compounded by partisan struggles, can Trump continue his previous plans to build a new cryptocurrency empire?

Political Group Interests Create Divisions in Congress

Looking back at 2024, both chambers of Congress had been relatively "in sync" on cryptocurrency legislation. In May of last year, the House passed the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" (FIT21) with a vote of 279 to 136, establishing a new regulatory framework for digital currencies, with support from 71 Democrats, indicating a bipartisan consensus. The bill emphasized the role of the CFTC in cryptocurrency regulation, aiming to promote innovation through clear rules, with Representative Young Kim calling it "a new era for crypto regulation in the U.S." Although the Senate moved more slowly, it also proposed the "Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act" under the push of Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand, attempting to set standards for stablecoins. In March of this year, the House, with bipartisan support, voted to repeal a cryptocurrency tax rule from the Biden administration, with the Senate not explicitly opposing it, as both sides aimed to provide legal protections for the industry while safeguarding investors.

Due to successful campaign financing operations last year and Trump's return to the political arena, the influence of the cryptocurrency industry has surged. If this stablecoin bill passes, it will become the first significant cryptocurrency reform after years of lobbying in the Senate.

However, recently, the Senate has been slow to pass a comprehensive bill similar to FIT21, and negotiations on stablecoin regulation have stalled due to opposition from key Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged his Democratic colleagues during a closed-door meeting on May 2 not to commit to supporting the "GENIUS Act" to allow for more room for amendments. The two chambers have developed differing attitudes toward cryptocurrency regulation, with the most direct reason being the increasingly close ties between the cryptocurrency industry and political groups, with many political groups suspected of manipulating the market for personal gain.

The well-known lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission serves as a prime example. On May 9, court documents revealed that Ripple and the SEC had reached a settlement agreement, intending to lift the injunction imposed on Ripple by the court's ruling in August 2024, and that Ripple would only pay $50 million of the $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, with the remaining $75 million returned to Ripple. Both parties agreed not to appeal and not to request the reversal of previous rulings.

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty emphasized the "case closure" on social media, calling it "the final update," attempting to shape the company's compliance image to alleviate market concerns. Additionally, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced a high-profile investment of $2 billion for acquisitions in the cryptocurrency industry, shifting the focus to business expansion rather than the case itself. He also discussed the financial damage caused by the lawsuit, stating that legal proceedings could lead to a loss of value for XRP holders of up to $15 billion.

Although the settlement agreement did not clarify the securities status of XRP, Ripple has been promoting price fluctuations of XRP by emphasizing "policy benefits" and "institutional cooperation." Previously, David Sacks, appointed by Trump as the cryptocurrency czar, publicly claimed that "Ripple won the SEC lawsuit" and advocated for the legitimacy of tokens like XRP, SOL, and ADA.

Ripple's ongoing "compliance statements" have not genuinely advanced the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies; its settlement with the SEC seems more like a cover-up of deeper conflicts of interest, especially as XRP holders have suffered losses of up to $15 billion due to the lawsuit, deepening suspicions of Ripple manipulating the market. Democrats have questioned the connection between its statements and the cryptocurrency assets held by the Trump family, with senior Senator Richard Blumenthal launching a preliminary investigation into potential conflicts of interest and illegal activities that may arise from Trump family-related businesses. Calls within the Democratic Party for a thorough investigation into cryptocurrency interest groups are growing louder, which has even affected the advancement of the cryptocurrency bill.

According to TheBlock, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has submitted a motion to terminate debate on the stablecoin "GENIUS Act" (formally known as the "2025 Stablecoin Innovation Act"), with a key procedural vote scheduled for Thursday. The bill, led by Bill Hagerty, requires that stablecoins must be 100% backed by liquid assets such as dollars or short-term government bonds, needing 60 votes in favor. Currently, the Senate has 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic seats, meaning Republicans need to secure support from at least 7 Democrats.

On the Democratic side, Senator Ruben Gallego and eight others have co-signed a letter opposing the current version, calling for stronger regulations on foreign issuers and anti-money laundering provisions. Senator Richard Blumenthal has sent an inquiry letter to Trump-associated cryptocurrency company World Liberty Financial to investigate potential conflicts of interest. On the Republican side, Rand Paul criticized the overregulation of stablecoins, while Senator Josh Hawley expressed concerns about tech giants issuing stablecoins.

In response, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that Congress is facing a good opportunity to advance stablecoin and market structure legislation this week. Coinbase firmly supports the Senate's debate on the "GENIUS Act," which requires 60 votes to pass. Coinbase also welcomes the House's efforts to continue the momentum of FIT21. If comprehensive legislation is to be passed into law before August, both chambers need to take immediate action.

What Are the Points of Disagreement?

The core goal of the "GENIUS Act" is to establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, ensuring their stability in relation to the dollar while promoting innovation in the cryptocurrency industry. The bill received bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee in March of this year.

The most significant point of disagreement likely stems from Trump, the "crypto president." NFTs, meme coins, DeFi, stablecoins—Trump has deeply intertwined his personal brand with the cryptocurrency space. Recently, the much-discussed "Cryptocurrency and AI Innovators" dinner had an entry fee as high as $1.5 million.

Of course, the most ostentatious aspect is his stablecoin fund project. Trump issued stablecoins through the cryptocurrency company "World Liberty Financial" and reached a $2 billion deal with a fund supported by the Abu Dhabi government, which sparked dissatisfaction and opposition from Senate Democrats. Reports indicate that Trump's cryptocurrency assets account for nearly 40% of his net worth, approximately $2.9 billion, including significant shares in World Liberty Financial and the issuance of $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly argued that Trump's assets are managed by a trust held by his children, denying any conflicts of interest, and emphasized Trump's commitment to making the U.S. the "global crypto capital." However, Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a letter on May 6 to World Liberty Financial and Fight Fight Fight LLC (the company issuing the $TRUMP meme coin), requesting communication records with the Trump family, the Trump Organization, and foreign governments to investigate potential conflicts of interest.

The "GENIUS Act," which was originally expected to undergo procedural voting this week, has been stalled due to ethical controversies and accusations of conflicts of interest. Key members of the Banking Committee, such as Elizabeth Warren, believe that the "GENIUS Act" could facilitate presidential profit-making and are calling for the Senate to reject the bill. She distributed a memo to all Democratic senators, outlining the bill's shortcomings in terms of anti-corruption, consumer protection, financial system stability, and national security. The memo suggested that the bill should prohibit elected officials and their families from participating in stablecoin businesses to avoid conflicts of interest.

Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the "End Cryptocurrency Corruption Act" on May 6, which would prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their immediate family members from profiting from cryptocurrency assets. This bill has been co-signed by ten Democratic senators, including Kirsten Gillibrand and Angela Alsobrooks, who were original co-sponsors of the "GENIUS Act," reflecting deep concerns within the Democratic Party regarding Trump's cryptocurrency business.

Related reading: WSJ: Democrats Set Their Sights on Trump's Crypto Empire, Trump's First 100 Days Back in the White House: Millions in Revenue? Senate to Investigate…

In addition, stablecoin giant Tether is also in the crosshairs. According to two anonymous Democratic aides revealed, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democrat from New York) urged his colleagues during a closed-door meeting on Thursday not to commit to supporting the bill, advocating for the use of bargaining power to seek further amendments. He specifically questioned the regulatory provisions for foreign companies like Tether. They pointed out that the "GENIUS Act" lacks strict regulations for foreign companies (such as Tether), which could open the door to money laundering and terrorist financing.

This morning, the U.S. Senate voted down the "Stablecoin Innovation and Security Act" by a margin of 48 to 49, with Democrats collectively rejecting the motion to advance the bill. This legislation requires 60 votes to enter the final voting procedure in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold a narrow advantage with 53 to 47 seats. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of explicit provisions prohibiting executive officials, including former President Trump and his family members, from holding or trading cryptocurrencies, as well as strengthening anti-corruption measures. Will the policy direction prioritize consolidating the dollar's hegemony or strictly prevent conflicts of interest? With the added layer of partisan struggles, the path of cryptocurrency development may face more challenges in the future.

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