Event Review 📰

Recently, the Ethereum market experienced a wave of intense volatility. Around 13:53, following the announcement of the Pectra mainnet upgrade, the market saw a brief panic sell-off, leading to a dip in retail sentiment; however, with improvements in macro liquidity and significant institutional inflows, the situation quickly reversed. Starting from 14:00, the ETH price surged from $2213 to $2305 in just 81 minutes, subsequently breaking through the $2250, $2300, and even $2350 levels, with a cumulative increase exceeding 8%. Although the price slightly retraced to $2364.68 at 15:50, the overall high-level oscillation trend indicated strong buying power and bullish confidence in the market.

Timeline 🕒

• 13:53: Announcement of the Pectra mainnet upgrade, proposing improvements such as batch processing of transactions and arbitrary token fee payments. Some retail investors exited to take profits due to panic, but the technical fundamentals remained robust, providing a foundation for subsequent reverse accumulation.
• 14:00: The ETH market began to rapidly activate, stabilizing around the $2213-$2214 range, with macro loose liquidity and warming market sentiment acting as key catalysts.
• 14:26: The price broke through the $2250 barrier for the first time, indicating active participation from institutions and large investors.
• 14:00–15:45: During this period, the ETH price climbed from about $2214 to $2394, with a cumulative increase of 8.11%, showing significant market buying and accumulation.
• 15:11: News emerged that the ETH price had broken through $2300, prompting intensive trading activity from short-term traders.
• 15:43: Latest data indicated that the ETH price further broke through the $2350 level, with technical indicators showing a strong bullish trend.
• 15:50: ETH slightly retraced to $2364.68, with some traders choosing to take profits, but the overall oscillation trend remained unchanged, indicating a solid layout from top-tier funds.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The volatility in this market was driven by multiple factors:

• Improvement in macro liquidity: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and recent U.S. employment data, tariff adjustments, and policy signals conveyed stability, enhancing market risk appetite and driving significant inflows of institutional and ETF funds into the digital asset market.
• Pectra mainnet upgrade: The technical reversal effect brought by this Ethereum upgrade significantly improved user experience and network performance. Although some retail investors sold out of concern initially, reverse operations gradually attracted value investors and institutional funds, laying the technical groundwork for subsequent price increases.
• Institutional fund inflows: Large transaction and explosive order data indicated that approximately $100 million of net inflows occurred across the network within the last hour, with explosive order amounts reaching $20 million. Although the short position ratio was high, bullish funds still dominated, signaling active market entry.

Technical Analysis 📊

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute K-line chart of Binance USDT perpetual contracts. The main observation indicators are as follows:

• Price trend and moving average system: The ETH price broke through the upper Bollinger Band and is running along the upper band, indicating a strong upward momentum in the market. The current price is above the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA series moving averages. All these moving averages show a bullish arrangement, with short, medium, and long-term trends all pointing upwards.
• Indicator signals:
• The %B indicator has broken through 1.0, showing that the price exceeds the upper band level. Although it is in the overbought zone, the OBV indicator indicates strong buying power.
• The KDJ indicator shows an increase in bullish momentum, while trading volume surged by 394.58%, further proving active buying.
• The RSI is in the overbought area, but the overall price crosses the upper band, suggesting potential oscillation near the retracement zone, with the market likely to continue accumulating and digesting some short-term profits.
• Explosive orders and large transactions: In the last hour, the total explosive order amount reached approximately $20 million, with a net inflow of $100 million in main funds, indicating active market funds and unusual transaction heat in the short term.

Market Outlook 🔮

Based on the event review and technical indicator analysis, it can be anticipated:

• In the short term, Ethereum may experience some profit-taking due to overbought effects, but if key resistance levels ($2300, $2350) hold, the market is expected to maintain a bullish trend.
• In the long term, as the effects of the Pectra upgrade gradually unfold and further institutional funds enter, the strong fundamentals of the market may continue to drive ETH prices higher.
• Investors should pay attention to short-term retracement risks while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and institutional fund dynamics. Although volatility is high, the strong market trend is supported by solid technical upgrades and fundamentals.

Overall, the intense volatility in this ETH market reflects both the market's confidence in technological improvements and the momentum from improved macro liquidity. Investors should focus on technical indicators while reasonably managing risk and preparing for medium to long-term layouts amidst short-term fluctuations.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。