The daily chart highlights a broader uptrend continuation following a significant rally from the recent low of $74,434. However, signs of local exhaustion are emerging. Three consecutive red candles near the resistance of $97,938 suggest short-term hesitation, especially as trading volume has declined—indicating waning bullish momentum. This divergence between rising prices and falling volume typically signals a possible retracement or consolidation. The strategy here leans bullish, recommending a buy-the-dip approach in the $92,000 to $94,000 zone, while eyeing profit near the $97,000 to $98,000 range unless a high-volume breakout occurs.
BTC/USD 1D chart via Bitstamp on May 4, 2024.
The 4-hour chart depicts a clear short-term downtrend setting in after the failed push above $97,000. The market structure has shifted to lower highs and lower lows, with $92,846 emerging as a key support level. Bearish volume currently dominates, reinforcing downward pressure. For short-term traders, an aggressive short entry near $96,000 to $96,500 could be considered, placing stop-loss orders above $97,500. A more conservative long position could be justified if a bullish pattern or divergence forms near the $92,800 to $93,000 zone, offering a lower-risk entry amid declining momentum.
BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on May 4, 2024.
On the 1-hour chart, bitcoin maintains a firm downward trajectory with no meaningful signs of reversal. The most recent support rests at $95,330, while resistance continues to loom at $97,938. The prevailing downtrend is reinforced by low-volume bullish attempts, characterized by weak, small-bodied green candles. Scalp traders may find short opportunities if the price fails again at the $96,000 to $96,300 level. Conversely, a bullish engulfing candle with strong volume near $95,000 to $95,300 may warrant a quick long scalp, targeting $96,000 but with tight stop-loss protection.
BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on May 4, 2024.
Momentum indicators present a mixed outlook. The relative strength index (RSI) at 65, Stochastic at 86, commodity channel index (CCI) at 68, average directional index (ADX) at 32, and Awesome oscillator all read neutral. Meanwhile, momentum (10) signals a sell, contrasting with a buy signal from the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level at 3,036. This incongruity reflects a market in consolidation, awaiting a decisive move. Until a breakout is confirmed, traders should monitor volume closely and proceed cautiously.
Moving averages collectively underscore a bullish bias. All short-, medium-, and long-term readings—across both exponential moving averages (EMA) and simple moving averages (SMA)—support upward momentum. The 10-period EMA and SMA are above the current price, signaling strong immediate support, while the 200-period indicators suggest longer-term bullish structure remains intact. This layered alignment of buy signals reinforces the uptrend on a macro level, though short-term volatility and resistance zones demand careful timing for new entries.
Bull Verdict:
If bitcoin sustains its position above $94,000 and volume reaccelerates, the broader uptrend remains intact with potential to retest and break the $97,938 resistance. Consistently strong buy signals from exponential and simple moving averages, combined with the buy indication from the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), support a bullish continuation scenario—particularly if price action stabilizes on the lower timeframes.
Bear Verdict:
A break below the $91,500 level on significant volume would invalidate the current bullish structure and confirm a near-term reversal. Weak intraday momentum, selling pressure on shorter timeframes, and a bearish signal from the momentum oscillator point to vulnerability. In this case, bitcoin could retrace further, testing support zones near $88,000 or below before any meaningful recovery attempt.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
