"Once the corrective wave is completed, it is expected that the fifth wave will subsequently rise to around $92,000."

Author: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $64,000 over the weekend but lost this support level in early Monday trading.

The start of this week saw significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. According to Bitpush data, BTC surged to a high of $65,545 in the early hours, but quickly reversed its trend after news broke that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had issued a Wells notice to Robinhood's crypto division, accusing it of securities violations.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,115, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours. Other cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance, with Ethereum (ETH), DOGE, SHIB, and MATIC falling by 2%-3%, while Solana (SOL) and XRP rose by 4%-6%.

BTC has not yet completed its correction, and the next upward wave is targeting $92,000.

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at cryptocurrency lending institution Ledn, stated that before the correction from the historic high of $73,000 in March is completed, there is still a possibility of a further decline in Bitcoin's price.

Glover's prediction is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, which is a technical indicator that assumes asset prices repeat certain patterns of fluctuations. Glover stated, "Although the correction to around $56,500 may have completed, I still expect the price to reach $52,000-55,000 before the completion of the 4th wave correction."

According to this theory, market trends often repeat a pattern, with each cycle consisting of 5 upward waves and 3 downward waves. The first, third, and fifth waves represent the main trend, while the second and fourth waves are corrections between the impulsive price actions.

Glover concluded, "Once the downward/ corrective wave is completed, I expect the fifth wave to subsequently rise to around $92,000."

Other bullish views

Cryptocurrency hedge fund QCP Capital observed renewed demand for Bitcoin call options in September, with strike prices at $75,000 and $100,000, indicating investors' optimistic sentiment for BTC climbing to higher prices in the coming months. Analysts at Bernstein also told clients in a report on Monday that BTC "has yet to complete its upward cycle," and reiterated their forecast that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra stated, "We feel better about this call, indicators suggest it's a healthy cycle, but still early. The risk-reward here remains attractive."

They noted that the correction to around $56,525 was positive for the market as it "cleared excess leverage from cryptocurrency exchange futures contracts."

Analysts also emphasized that after eight consecutive days of outflows, U.S.-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows again on Friday. Notably, after 78 consecutive days of outflows, Grayscale's GBTC recorded a net inflow of $63 million on Friday, with analysts stating, "Given that GBTC has been a source of significant sustained selling, and the new 9 ETFs have had to absorb these sales, this figure is very important."

Other positive factors mentioned by Bernstein analysts include strong overall ETF inflows over the past three months, rising interest from corporate Bitcoin purchases, stable hash rate post-halving, stable transaction fees post-halving, and low prices of Bitcoin mining equipment.

Mike Martin, Content Manager at tastycrypto, also viewed last week's correction as a healthy development in the market, expecting Bitcoin to "stabilize near the $60,000 mark in the short term." He attributed this to ongoing inflation concerns and uncertainty in monetary policy, and predicted that the price will continue to stabilize in the coming months.

In a report, Martin stated, "Looking towards the end of this year, Bitcoin could easily reach $80,000. However, this forecast depends on several factors becoming more favorable, including clearer signals on monetary policy and potential lower interest rates, which could reignite interest in risk assets like Bitcoin."

He added that clarity on interest rate cuts "will be key to reigniting the Bitcoin bull market. This move could improve broader market sentiment, encouraging investment in cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional investments, especially in a scenario of lower returns in traditional investments in a depreciating dollar environment."

Vijay Marolia, Co-founder of The Cash Square, also believed that "the bottom may have already arrived" and "expects the Bitcoin bull market to continue this year."

He stated, "While technically, I wouldn't be surprised if the price dropped to the $50,000 level in the short term – I believe the bottom may have already arrived, so I expect the Bitcoin bull market to continue this year, as the price of Bitcoin is inversely proportional to the confidence in global fiat currencies."

As for catalysts to reignite the bull market, Marolia pointed out that "the Federal Reserve (or other major central banks) taking more accommodative policies; any additional increase in government spending (taxed or inflated); and any surge in 10-year Treasury yields and/or a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating."

Emmanuel Quezada, CEO of U-topia, stated, "While accurately predicting market tops or bottoms is challenging, it can be asserted that the current discounted prices provide a significant opportunity for a new ATH in 2024."

Quezada said, "Considering the current market trends and the impact of institutional order flow on market capitalization, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in the next quarter is high, market adjustments often stem from uncertainty. Therefore, regulatory clarity within the market framework is a key driver to guide liquidity towards favorable directions."

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