On Friday, what color do you think it is? Dark surge? Or a murder mystery? Black Friday, the cryptocurrency market plummeted, a night of shock and wash, blood washed the entire market, mainstream coins plummeted by nearly 5%, while altcoins saw even more fierce declines, mostly exceeding 10%. Due to increased geopolitical uncertainty, the risk aversion sentiment in traditional markets spread to digital assets, leading to a subsequent plunge in the crypto market the next day, with traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold rising.
Faced with the market's bloodbath, there are countless liquidations, but also many retail investors who have made a fortune. The market is polarized, just like the subsequent plunge of Bitcoin and the surge in the precious metals market, with funds rotating in the market. Whether you can grab the "cake" from the big players depends on your luck and strength. For those who were liquidated or trapped, it's nothing more than two points: ignoring risks, removing stop-loss orders, and having excessively heavy positions. Secondly, it's about having a lucky mentality, liking to play against the market. Once encountering a market with sharp rises and falls, it's game over. Investment is not speculation, we all understand this age-old topic. Without the conscious execution, you won't go far on the investment path.
How far will the market's decline continue is a curious question?
This is not only a focal point for me to consider, but also a point that many retail investors need to consider. Many real-trading consultations have asked me about this question, and today I will briefly discuss it from my personal perspective. First of all, the "Bitcoin halving event" has been brewing in the market for a long time. Buying on expectations and selling on facts, this is an ironclad fact. During this period, capital and big players have already harvested retail investors time and time again. The recent market fluctuations have been washing back and forth, especially around the $70,000 mark, and this wave of sharp decline is a big harvest. Many retail investors have a misconception about the "Bitcoin halving" event. They think that the halving is good news and Bitcoin will definitely soar. This is not wrong, but if you think this way, do all the people in the market think the same? Do capital and big players think so? You can refer to the historical trend of Bitcoin during previous "halving events".
Previous halvings showed mixed short-term impacts, but long-term impacts were bullish. In the three previous halvings, the price surged one to three months later in two instances. In all three halvings, the price surged nine to twelve months later. However, the three sample sizes may not be sufficient to draw conclusions. It's important to pay attention to other events in the industry, especially in 2021. Historical references are informative, but not entirely applicable, as the dynamics of events in each stage are different. I believe that a sharp decline in the market before the Bitcoin event is relatively a good thing. Firstly, it confirms the rule of falling before rising, and secondly, it aligns with the psychology of retail investors, the more it falls, the more they buy, especially for spot traders.
April is destined to be an unstable month. The sharp decline on April 12 caught retail investors off guard, some were happy, some were worried, but I think this is an opportunity. Because around April 15, Hong Kong may approve the trading of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which is a rare scene in Chinese history and a major positive development. Following that, the Bitcoin halving event will begin around April 17, which is undoubtedly a potential positive.
Despite recent volatility, the prolonged geopolitical tensions leave the end of the cryptocurrency market downturn uncertain. However, Bitcoin's resilience indicates that some people view it as a safer asset. Factors such as the upcoming Bitcoin halving, optimism about ETFs, US deficit spending, and global central bank easing policies may support the market. I believe that later this year, Bitcoin prices will usher in a second bull market, so everyone must be prepared with chips in hand and be ready to get on board at any time. Every downturn is an opportunity for spot and contract traders to enter the market. If the trend is clear, real-time layout for the medium and long term is essential, striving to make a full profit.
Bitcoin market analysis: On the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a large bearish candle directly breaking through the BOLL midline position, running in a downward space, with the MA5 and MA10 death cross suppressing its upward movement. The key resistance above is around $69,300, and the support below needs to be around $65,000. The MACD on the chart shows continuous downward momentum, indicating that the price will continue to be under pressure. In the short term, after the sharp decline the day before, the price is currently undergoing a technical adjustment. In the short term, the key resistance above needs to be around $68,500, and the support below needs to be around $66,500.
In summary: The price breaking through successively is still within the triangular oscillation range. The major trend focuses on the $60,000-$73,856 area, while the minor trend focuses on the $65,000-$72,000 area. The bull market is still relatively present until the major trend is broken. In the short term, there are signs of a rebound in the price, but the strength of the rebound is limited, so we still maintain a high short position and a low long position. There are many news events in April, so risk control in trading is crucial. If you are uncertain about technical market trends and news interpretation, or if you are holding trapped positions, you can discuss with me.
Short-term resistance levels: $68,000/$68,500 Short-term support levels: $66,000/$65,000
Real-time Bitcoin trading strategies:
- Short at around $68,300-$68,500 on a rebound, with a target of $67,500-$67,800
- Long at around $66,300-$66,500 on a pullback, with a target of $67,500-$67,800, synchronized with Ethereum!
Every article is based on the author's personal experience. After so many years in the cryptocurrency market, I have encountered various friends, and their stories bring different experiences to those who have not met me. Adhering to the trading philosophy of "simplicity, following the trend, no greed, and steady execution" is the path to wealth. I have focused on spot and contract trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets for many years, using the lessons learned from the "blood" of many retail investors to guide you forward. Follow Yuhui and you won't get lost, Yuhui will help you create wealth! (You can follow me on Weibo: Yuhui, the wealth-bringer)
This article is from the author Yuhui. Please indicate the source when reposting, respect personal opinions, and do not plagiarize. The market situation is ever-changing, and the article has timeliness and lag. This article does not provide any express or implied guarantees of the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content contained. Please strictly use it for reference, strictly control your positions, and please take full responsibility. Finally, I wish everyone a happy investment and a happy day!
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