Recently, there are two events worth noting:
The first is the repeated record highs in the price of gold.
Last weekend, the price of New York gold futures hit a historic high, approaching $2260 per ounce. At the same time, the price of Shanghai gold futures also reached a new high, surpassing 530 RMB per gram.
Not only in the United States and China, but also in other countries such as Australia and Japan, the price of gold has broken their respective historical records.
It is worth noting that the continuous record highs of gold during this period have been achieved while the US dollar index is so strong and the Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates.
The trend of gold cannot be simply explained by the usual economic laws, and can only be considered from the perspective of geopolitics.
The second is the visit of a heavyweight delegation from the United States to China.
Recently, heavyweight delegations from the business community and strategic academic community of the United States visited China and received high-level and high-profile receptions. At this time, the significance and purpose of such a delegation visiting China are self-evident.
If we strip away the glamorous facade of these representatives, we can see it in simple terms:
Most of the business community representatives are typical big capitalists. They are more concerned about commercial interests and are not as ideological as politicians in Washington.
Many of the representatives from the strategic academic community hold a relatively positive or objective attitude towards China.
In a sense, these representatives are a relatively pragmatic and stabilizing force within the American elite. From the video footage of China Central Television, we can also see that the atmosphere of the meeting is very friendly, positive, and warm. For example, there are many close-up shots in the video showing these Americans earnestly taking notes with pens.
Soon, some in-depth details of the meeting were revealed through other channels: during the meeting, the American representatives asked some questions very candidly, but interpreted the responses in their own way.
And in many respects, these interpretations are very similar to those of the American political circles.
If even these people's views are starting to converge with those of the American political circles, it means that the views of various strata in the United States on certain issues are becoming increasingly consistent.
It is almost certain that in the upcoming US election, regardless of which party or candidate is elected, their views on certain issues will be further strengthened.
If we consider the trend of gold and the development of some unstable factors comprehensively, we can speculate that the cracks formed between the East and the West due to factors such as war, geopolitics, and ideology may not be as easy to heal as imagined.
If this trend continues, we may see more uncertain factors and unpredictable risks in the future.
In this situation, only assets that are as neutral as possible and do not rely on centralized credit support have the potential to hedge against various risks to the maximum extent.
Among many assets, I can see that only gold and cryptocurrencies possess these characteristics.
Gold is now steadily reflecting this market sentiment, as it is the most recognized in traditional markets.
But I believe that cryptocurrencies will also quickly reflect this market sentiment in the near future—some senior figures in the traditional financial circles have increasingly begun to openly discuss Bitcoin, disregarding the risks.
In my opinion, although gold has many advantages, its disadvantages cannot be ignored (such as inconvenience in carrying and susceptibility to physical control), so cryptocurrencies deserve more attention.
The reason I am paying so much attention to these details is because I have been thinking: whether it is necessary to make some adjustments to the operational methods in the previous bull market in the upcoming bull market. For example, should I seriously consider increasing the proportion of long-term holdings?
In the previous bull markets, I would always hold about 20% to 30% of Bitcoin and Ethereum without ever cashing out. However, with the exponential increase in various uncertain factors and risks, is it necessary to further increase this proportion to cope with potential accidents at any time?
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