Daily Sharing

Last Friday, we mentioned that Bitcoin would undergo a rebound of approximately one week at the 4-hour level, with a target range of 43500 to 44000, which has now been achieved. Personally, I believe the current focus should be on whether the 4-hour rebound is confirmed to have ended, rather than discussing whether Bitcoin will break 48969 and continue to new highs. So, there are a few points to consider regarding whether the 4-hour rebound has ended. First, the 4-hour rebound of Bitcoin may not have ended yet, and it may break above 44000 or touch 45000 before ending. Second, the 4-hour rebound of Bitcoin may have already ended. Third, if it can fall below 41800 again, it can be considered that the 4-hour rebound has ended.

Just observe these points. As for how to operate, I think you can participate in the next 4-hour decline by gradually building short positions at suitable levels.

BTC Medium-term

Daily:

At the daily level, there is currently a pullback from the 48969 level, with a high probability of dropping below 38500 again. It is expected that the overall decline indicated by the white arrows will continue until the end of February or early March. Personally, I hope the target will be below 35000, but the final position can only be determined as we go along.

After the completion of the white arrow decline, there will be a rebound at the daily level, indicated by the red arrows in the chart. Whether this rebound breaks 48969 depends on the depth of the white arrow decline.

4H:

Currently, we need to observe the strength of the current 1-hour level rebound to see if it will extend above 44000 to continue the 4-hour level rebound. Regardless of whether it extends above 44000, it cannot change the fate of a subsequent 4-hour decline. Many of us are bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls. Previously, when it fell below 39500, there were talks of going to 37000, 36000. Now, after rebounding above 33000 multiple times, some believe Bitcoin will continue to new highs at 50000. In reality, the structural unity and logic were not considered.

Currently, I believe that whether the rebound reaches around 33800, 44500, or even 45000, 46000, it will not change the structure of the daily chart. There is a high probability of going to 38000 or even lower.

The goal is to observe whether the second 4-hour level rebound will extend upwards. If it does, it should give a bearish divergence signal on the 4-hour MACD. If it does not extend, it should struggle to break 43500. Once it breaks 43822 again, the expectation of the 4-hour rebound will end soon. Or if it falls below 41800, it can also be considered that the 4-hour rebound has ended. Overall, the upward space and time are limited.

BTC Short-term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, since it has approached 43000 again in the short term, as expected yesterday, there should be a 1-hour level rebound. The current 1-hour level rebound is being observed to see if it will break 43882 again. If it does not break, it means that the 4-hour level decline has begun, as indicated by the white arrows. If this 1-hour rebound breaks 43882, it indicates an extension of the 4-hour level rebound, but it is likely to not go too high before a subsequent 4-hour level decline, as indicated by the red arrows in the chart.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the current 1-hour level rebound has completed the first 15-minute level rise and the second 15-minute level decline. It is possible that it is currently running the third 15-minute level rise, which still has the potential to reach around 44000 to 44500. If it goes up, it is still advisable to consider shorting at higher levels.

ETH

At the 4-hour level, if Ethereum breaks 2350 again, there is a chance for another extension of the 4-hour level rebound to around 2420, followed by a third 4-hour level decline breaking 2150.

If it does not break 2350, the 4-hour rebound may end prematurely.

At the 1-hour level, the current 1-hour level rebound is being observed to see if it will break 2350. If it does, it should follow the yellow arrows in the chart, extending the 4-hour level rebound to around 2400 through the central axis. At the 15-minute level, there is still a chance for another 15-minute level rebound to reach around 2350.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Upward, currently continuing the weekly rebound from 15476, with attention to subsequent daily chart conditions for when it will end.

Daily Level: Downward, currently undergoing a daily pullback, expected to last until the end of February or early March.

4-hour Level: Downward or upward, after the pullback did not break 41400 and then re-broke 43000, there is a possibility of further upward extension.

1-hour Level: Upward, the current 1-hour level rebound is being observed to see if it will reach 44000.

15-minute Level: Upward, there should be another 15-minute level rebound after early morning.

Feel free to follow my public account for discussions and exchanges:

The article is time-sensitive, so be mindful of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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