Chen Bin's Point of View: Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to break through on November 27th, and the evening is expected to continue the downward trend!
"If we don't trust each other, what's the difference between this world and hell? When you find that there is nothing more to lose in the market, it is when you start to gain. Having something is a low-level happiness, while seeking something is a high-level happiness.
I don't need anyone to refute me. I am enough to refute myself. Facing calmly is an attitude and also a manifestation of inner strength. People always persist and wait in panic. They hastily exit once they make a profit. A good mindset is not smiling when making a profit, but being calm before the floating loss.
After the strong pressure behind 38000, it's difficult for the bulls to continue. The rebound at the high level welcomes the decline! In the past, behind a large bearish candlestick, there is usually a continuation of the decline, or a correction with small doji candlesticks. It's precisely because a waterfall-like decline is brewing, which keeps those who are longing for more from giving up. When most people are still bullish and the market is overwhelmingly bullish, many people continue to follow the trend, believing that it should rise. Is it going against the trend to shout "short"?
The short positions arranged a few days ago starting from 37500 and then 37700, 37800, 38000, and other positions, although arranged a bit early, are not important because these are my planned medium-term short positions! The continuous consolidation below 37800-38000 for several days shows a good understanding of the resistance level. When the direction is right, there is really no fear of a long road ahead.
In the big picture, we are starting to focus on the main market trend of retracement and decline! In the short term, after the retracement in the Asian session and the rebound in the European session, there was no early high point, and the subsequent decline even broke through the low point of the early morning. Therefore, it is highly likely that the evening will continue to break the low. Using a mnemonic to explain, there is a high probability that there will be no upward movement at night, but a continuation of the downward trend. In addition, in recent days, the market has been almost entirely bullish, which also fits the willingness to be bullish or buy the dip! But you need to understand that only 20% of people in the market are right about going long. When everyone is looking in one direction, the market will inevitably go the other way. The current high-level oscillation rebound is just a lure for the bulls. The selling pressure is the most crucial. This is why I have been advising everyone to position short in the 37500-38000 area recently but have not taken any action. The real reason for sticking to the original short position is here.
Stay calm and hold your position, don't let your future self mock your present self!
Sometimes, trading reflects all aspects of human nature. In fact, the amount of profit and loss is directly proportional to the number of human weaknesses. When entering the market, hesitating and wavering show signs of decision-making fear. When holding a position, even if the price moves in the opposite direction by just $10, some people start to be swayed. If this were in ancient times, they would have been killed and used as a sacrifice. When the price starts to move towards the take-profit point, some people become restless at the slightest rebound and exit early, claiming it's for safety. They are hesitant when they should be making money and vocal when they are not losing. Such people usually don't make money, and making money is considered abnormal.
Regardless of how the price evolves, it is essential to be clear about how to respond when a breach occurs or when a certain level is reached. Having a good mindset is not just about being happy when making a profit, but also about not panicking when facing a floating loss. Trust is not about feeling grateful for the flowers after making money, but about waiting and enduring while holding a position. True masters are lonely and solitary. You should ask yourself how much profit you have truly made and consider the execution and level of trust. Don't make so many excuses for the missed trades. It only deceives your account.
The European session broke the low without a rebound, and the evening is expected to continue the downward trend!
Overnight, after the early morning rebound to 37800, Bitcoin slowly fell all the way down, breaking the support level of the previous low of 37000. After today's downward exploration, there was no significant rebound, which means that the price will continue to decline. Whether it's in the short term or medium term, there is still room for further downward movement!
As shown in the chart, the high point in the early morning was within the range of 37700-37800. This is also the pressure area after the fall from the high point of 38400. The short-term space below will directly target the low point of 36500-36000 from last week. The weak downward trend in the Asian and European sessions, if the price can stay below 37400 before the US session, will break through the support line at 36500. Following the trend is smooth sailing, while going against the trend is chaotic.
Ethereum has made multiple unsuccessful attempts to rise, and a waterfall is about to come.
Last Friday, when Ethereum once again broke through 2100, it pushed the bulls to a climax. At that time, there were widespread voices in the market saying that Ethereum would continue to rise and that they were looking to break through 2200-2300. However, under the backdrop of the rise to 2100, as it approached the pressure positions of the previous highs at 2137 and 2160, this also became a dense pressure area for Ethereum. My institution will realize profits above 2100, and if you still chase after that, you will become a bag holder!! So we need to be more rational!
Currently, as the Ethereum price falls, the defensive point has shifted to 2080. In other words, if it does not break through 2080 tonight, the rhythm of the retracement will not change. The high-short strategy should remain unchanged. I have said that the end of a trend must be realized by breaking through the last price. If the price does not break through, all imagination is worthless.
Suggestions for the evening of November 27th:
Over the past few days, there have been many opportunities to short Bitcoin above 37500. Whether it's the short at 37900-38000 on the 24th, the short at 37800-37700 the day before yesterday, or the short at 37400 today, any short position at the high level is good! If you haven't taken any short positions at the high levels in the past few days and are considering doing so now, I suggest going short directly at 37100-37200!
The short positions at 2120 for Ethereum the day before yesterday and at 2080-2090 yesterday are still valid, right? The price is about to break through 2000, so the stop loss for the short position can be lowered to 2080. You can continue to hold, and for those who are conservative, you can reduce your position. Tonight, we will look for a break below 2000, and in the short term, we will first look at 1960-1920.
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