Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Fu Ruhe
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning of the year, funds from traditional finance have been continuously pouring into the crypto world in the past few months. Especially after Bitcoin's halving, the market's new narrative focus has once again turned to ETFs—Ethereum spot ETF.
As the crucial decision time for the Ethereum spot ETF (May 23) approaches, the prospects seem not optimistic based on the remarks of well-known figures and the market's unusual movements.
Odaily Planet Daily has organized the market's voices on whether the US Ethereum spot ETF can be approved and analyzed the current development of global crypto asset ETFs.
Current situation of the Ethereum spot ETF
The application for the US Ethereum spot ETF was first submitted by VanEck on October 27 last year, followed by applications from 21Shares&Ark, Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco&Galaxy, Fidelity, BlackRock, and Bitwise. However, based on the process of the SEC's approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the decision will be made on the final deadline of the first ETF application, which is 240 days, with the ultimate deadline being May 23 this year.
Unlike the optimistic expectations before the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the market does not hold much hope for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, mainly due to the controversy over whether Ethereum should be classified as a "security" after transitioning from PoW to PoS. However, the SEC has not expressed any opinion on this matter. If the SEC does not approve the Ethereum spot ETF, it would indirectly confirm that Ethereum is a "security," thereby leading to the majority of altcoins in the market not having the possibility to apply for an ETF in the future. For more details on this, you can read the previous article "Does Ethereum Spot ETF still have a chance? What risks is the SEC facing?"
Currently, industry figures and institutions in the market do not hold much hope for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF before May 23.
Recently, TRON founder Justin Sun expressed his opinion, stating that he believes the Ethereum spot ETF will not be approved in May and emphasized that the crypto industry still needs to prepare for long-term education for regulatory agencies, with a focus on helping them understand crypto.
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, the first issuer to apply for the Ethereum spot ETF, also stated, "We may be the first applicant to be rejected in May." It was also revealed by insiders that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to reject the applications for the Ethereum spot ETF from VanEck and ARK.
On-chain prediction markets Polymarket, crypto market maker GSR, and Bloomberg analysts have lowered the likelihood of approval for the Ethereum spot ETF to around 20%, with GSR even predicting that the approval process for the Ethereum spot ETF may be extended to 2025 to 2026.
However, Grayscale still maintains a high level of confidence in the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF.
In addition, there has been unusually frequent movement of ETH on exchanges and on-chain recently. The author observed a continuous net outflow of ETH from exchanges, with data from CoinCarp showing a net outflow of over 380,000 ETH from crypto exchanges in the past 30 days.
On April 28, due to the listing of the Franklin Ethereum spot ETF code EZET on the DTCC website, the price of Ethereum rose, and three new whales withdrew 11,557 ETH from Binance, followed by what appeared to be Sun Yuchen's address accumulating 6,743 ETH again. However, today, many addresses have also transferred ETH to exchanges, and different trading operations have proven that the market is divided on the final decision of the Ethereum spot ETF.
Conclusion
On April 30, the Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF is set to officially start trading. If investors' trading enthusiasm and trading performance are outstanding, it may influence the SEC's opinion, and relevant institutions will also use this to lobby the SEC. However, purely based on the recent trends of the US Ethereum spot ETF and the opinions of relevant institutions, the likelihood of approval seems slim.
Here, Odaily Planet Daily reminds everyone to pay attention to price fluctuations and reduce trading risks.
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