Preface: Investment involves risks, please proceed with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Time of writing: 23:43, October 3, Beijing time
Market Information
- Macau Police Department: Virtual currency is not legal tender in Macau, beware of being deceived;
- Citigroup Group launches Citigroup Token based on a private chain, providing instant payment services for institutional clients;
- US House of Representatives bill seeks to centralize record off-chain encrypted transactions;
- Ray Dalio: The US will face a debt crisis, and the speed of its occurrence will depend on supply and demand issues;
- SEC once again delays decision on Valkyrie spot Bitcoin ETF.
Market Review
Yesterday, we mentioned that after the big cake reached the 200-day moving average, it would start to pull back. Our layout was to go short around 28400. The highest point of the big cake's rally was at 28598, where we entered our short position. The decline reached a low point at 27263. Although it did not reach the predicted target of 26880-26500, this decline still yielded a profit of at least a thousand points. When the strategy was proposed yesterday, there were doubts in the market, but the results speak for themselves. Congratulations to friends who followed this short position. The previous losses can be recovered, and there is even a decent profit margin. Short positions near 1722 for Ethereum reached a low point at 1634, already reaching our predicted range of 1645-1610. Short positions can basically take profit, and attention should be paid to the breaking situation below for future long position layouts.
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the daily chart, the big cake's rebound is still under pressure from the 200-day moving average. The previous rebound was also followed by a decline under the pressure of the 200-day moving average. This time is no different. The bodies of the two candlesticks are both below the 200-day moving average, indicating effective short-term pressure and the start of a pullback. The initial range of this pullback for the big cake is 26980-26640. After reaching this range, we will then look at the breaking situation of the low point at 25971. If it breaks, the market will continue to decline, testing the support at 25600. If it breaks effectively, a deeper decline to 23650 will begin. Conversely, if the market, after reaching around 26640, does not break below 25971 and closes with a shadow near 26640, then the market will start to rebound. The future rebound will depend on whether it can break through the 200-day moving average. Based on the closing situation after the decline, new layouts will be made in the future. The short-term decline is not over yet. Short positions near 28400 can reduce positions and move the stop loss to target the range of 26980-26640. Take control of entry opportunities; short-term trading, manage risks, and take responsibility for gains and losses.
ETH:
Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum's decline is relatively stronger compared to the big cake. While the big cake's pullback has not reached the target range, Ethereum has already reached the predicted range of 1645-1610 from yesterday. Short positions can basically take profit and pay attention to the breaking situation of the low point at 1561. If it breaks, the market will reach around 1480. If it doesn't break and closes near 1610, there are still opportunities for long positions in the short term. Take control of entry opportunities; short-term trading, manage risks, and take responsibility for gains and losses.
In summary:
Both the big cake and Ethereum are under pressure and falling. Pay attention to whether there will be a breaking after the decline.
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, the above is only personal advice, for reference only!
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The biggest prison in this world is the human brain. Without breaking free from obsession, one is imprisoned wherever they go. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman said in "Thinking, Fast and Slow": the human brain has two systems, System 1 relies on intuition and instinct, while System 2 is rational and thoughtful. The biggest difference between speculation and investment is not the holding time, but one is constantly learning, while the other is always repeating.
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