Michelle Obama and RFK Jr. Have Equal Odds of Becoming Next President on Polymarket

Crypto traders think former first lady Michelle Obama—who is not running nor likely to announce a late bid to return to the White House—has just as good a shot at winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election as declared candidate and crypto proponent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

So far, traders have bet $8 million on Obama’s prospects through the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. Millions of dollars have been wagered on other names too, but with Polymarket assigning her a 4% chance of success, she’s technically a top-three pick, rivaling candidates that have actually campaigned.

That includes Kennedy, who declared his independence from the Democratic Party in October. Garnering $6.7 million in bets on Polymarket, the nephew of former President Kennedy has cozied up to crypto consistently—floating ideas from backing the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin to putting the entire U.S. budget on the blockchain to spur government accountability.

Traditional political polling tracked by The Hill shows that Kennedy’s chances are fading among regular voters as he attempts to challenge party candidates President Biden and Former President Donald Trump. The political media site said Kennedy has the support of about 8.5% of voters, and that Trump did not want to debate him because “he’s not a serious candidate.”

Still, the order book on Polymarket for Kennedy shows over a dozen bets of $25,000 or more hoping that he emerges victorious at the ballot box. Compare that to a handful of bets backing Obama to the tune of $5,000, with $7,500 the largest wager.

Obama’s office said in March that a run for office isn’t in the cards for 2024. “As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president,” a director of communications for Obama’s office told NBC News.

The spokesperson indicated that Obama will instead throw her political clout behind Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Notably, Harris has also attracted notable bets on Polymarket. With $4.4 million in wagers placed, crypto traders say she has a 1% shot of replacing her boss in November.

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