- Title: AICoin Weekly Macro Data and Cryptocurrency Market Key Events Preview:
May 6th (Monday): Eurozone Services PMI final value, Eurozone Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone PPI month-on-month. The Boao Forum for Asia Riyadh Conference will be held in Saudi Arabia; the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and the UK will be closed for one day. ZERO TGE will commence, with 15%-17% of the total supply allocated for airdrops.
May 7th (Tuesday): Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak, New York Fed President Williams will speak, Japan's final Composite PMI, Australia's policy interest rate decision, Eurozone retail sales month-on-month. Mode will release governance token MODE and open airdrop applications; meson network will undergo mainnet mapping.
May 8th (Wednesday): Fed Vice Chairman Clarida will speak, Boston Fed President Rosengren will speak.
May 9th (Thursday): Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference.
May 10th (Friday): UK Q1 GDP, ECB will release the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting, Fed Governor Bowman will speak on financial stability risks, US May University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index preliminary value. EigenLayer will commence token applications.
May 11th (Saturday): Fed Governor Bostic will speak. Avail's first phase of airdrop applications will end, and more relevant information will be announced.
II. Key News Recap in the Cryptocurrency Industry (Exclusive Summary):
Data Aspect: Visa's latest data shows that over 90% of stablecoin transactions are not from real users, raising concerns about the authenticity of the cryptocurrency trading market. Additionally, in the past 7 days, a significant amount of 16501.37 BTC flowed into exchange wallets, indicating the activity and capital flow in the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, approximately 74% of BTC has not been transferred in the past 6 months, suggesting that a portion of Bitcoin in the market is being held long-term or used for other purposes. In institutional trading, several insiders at Coinbase collectively sold $383 million worth of stocks in the first quarter, while MicroStrategy purchased 122 BTC in April, further demonstrating the level of institutional investor activity in the cryptocurrency market.
Project and Platform Aspect: Coinbase has officially integrated the Bitcoin Lightning Network, a significant technological advancement aimed at improving Bitcoin's transaction speed and reducing transaction fees. On the other hand, MicroStrategy announced the construction of a decentralized identity protocol based on the Ordinals protocol, showcasing the company's continuous innovation and exploration in the blockchain technology field.
Macro Policy and Regulatory Aspect: The Fed conducted balance sheet reduction in April, reducing the balance sheet size to $7.362 trillion, which had a broad impact on global financial markets. Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate policy remained unchanged, and Chairman Powell expressed caution about whether there will be a rate cut this year. Additionally, the Chairman of the US Financial Services Committee criticized the SEC's investigation into Ethereum, sparking intense discussions about cryptocurrency regulation. These macro policy and regulatory dynamics have significant implications for the future direction of the cryptocurrency market.
Institutional Research Reports and Perspectives: The former CEO of Bitmex predicted that the Bitcoin trading price will be between $60,000 and $70,000 before August, attracting widespread attention in the market. Analysts believe that the rise of BTC and ETH depends on the ability of US economic policies to suppress the strength of the US dollar, providing investors with an alternative interpretation of market trends. Furthermore, institutions such as JPMorgan and VanEck have also released research reports and perspectives on the cryptocurrency market, providing investors with more references and insights. In individual events, CZ was ultimately sentenced to 4 months in prison, which had a certain impact on the reputation and trust of the cryptocurrency community.
III. Community Interaction and Sharing:
Regarding the net inflow of $63 million into the Grayscale GBTC Bitcoin ETF on May 3rd, this is the first net inflow since the ETF was approved.
This indicates a resurgence of market enthusiasm for Bitcoin and its investment tools. This change first reflects the increased confidence of investors in the Bitcoin market. The net inflow of Grayscale GBTC, as a well-known Bitcoin investment tool in the market, is often seen as an indicator of market sentiment. The positive inflow of GBTC reflects the increased demand from investors for Bitcoin and its derivatives, indicating that the Bitcoin market may usher in a new round of upward trends.
Furthermore, the positive inflow of GBTC also reflects the recognition of Bitcoin investment tools by institutional investors. Institutional investors typically have stricter investment standards and more professional investment capabilities, and their participation will further promote the maturity and development of the Bitcoin market.
Next, regarding the impact on the market, the positive inflow of GBTC may bring about the following changes: First, the price of Bitcoin may be boosted as more funds flowing in will increase the buying power in the market; second, the activity in the Bitcoin market may increase as the participation of institutional investors will bring more trading opportunities and market depth; third, the investment environment for Bitcoin may improve, as institutional investors typically pay more attention to market compliance and transparency, which will benefit the long-term healthy development of the market.
The positive inflow of GBTC is a positive signal for the Bitcoin market, indicating that the market may usher in new fluctuations.
IV. Important Events, Data, and Interpretation:
Regarding the significant increase in the total volume of stablecoin transactions on Ethereum last month, with the majority of the volume contributed by the single stablecoin DAI.
We believe that the recent significant growth in the total volume of stablecoin transactions on Ethereum, with last month's volume significantly higher than any previous month, is not driven by a variety of stablecoins but mainly by the single stablecoin DAI. This phenomenon not only reveals the dynamic changes in the stablecoin trading market on Ethereum but also indicates potential market trends in the future.
First, from the perspective of DAI's dominant position in the stablecoin trading volume, this reflects the widespread market recognition of DAI's stability and liquidity within the Ethereum ecosystem. As a decentralized stablecoin of MakerDAO, DAI is backed by a robust collateral mechanism and algorithmic support, enabling it to maintain relatively stable value in market fluctuations. This makes DAI a popular payment and settlement tool within the Ethereum ecosystem, especially in the DeFi field.
Second, DAI is increasingly being used in complex MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) transactions, which often involve high-risk, high-yield operations such as flash loans. This indicates the continuous increase in financial innovation and complexity within the Ethereum ecosystem, while also revealing the market's demand for higher returns and greater liquidity. However, this trend also brings certain risks, as complex MEV transactions often involve significant capital flows and price fluctuations, which may impact market stability.
Regarding the impact on the market, analysis can be conducted from the following aspects. First, DAI's dominant position in the stablecoin trading volume may further strengthen, expanding DAI's influence within the Ethereum ecosystem. Meanwhile, as more users and businesses begin to accept and use DAI for payments and settlements, the liquidity and activity within the Ethereum ecosystem will be further enhanced.
Second, complex MEV transactions will continue to occupy an important position within the Ethereum ecosystem, but this will also bring greater market volatility and risks. Therefore, regulatory agencies and market participants need to strengthen the supervision and management of these transactions to ensure market stability and healthy development.
Finally, financial innovation and complexity within the Ethereum ecosystem will continue to increase, bringing more opportunities and challenges to the market. However, this also requires market participants to have a higher risk awareness and judgment capability to cope with potential market fluctuations and risks.
V. Institutional Perspectives and Overseas Perspectives:
Overview: Analysts at Bernstein predict that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, believing that the recent pullback has cleared excessive leverage. Additionally, the GBTC ETF has resumed net inflows after consecutive outflows, indicating increased market confidence. Research from Bloomberg shows that cryptocurrency gains are being used for real estate purchases rather than luxury consumption, driving local real estate markets in some states. Visa's data indicates that over 90% of stablecoin transaction volume is not from real users, challenging the expectation of stablecoins becoming a common payment method. Chris Dixon expresses concerns about the US regulatory system's unfair treatment of cryptocurrency companies and blockchain tokens. Zhu Haokang, a senior executive at Huaxia Fund, predicts that the first-day listing scale of the Hong Kong ETF will exceed that of the US, but the actual trading volume is lower, which analysts believe aligns with the size of the Hong Kong cryptocurrency market. Exchange wallet data shows recent fluctuations in BTC inflows and outflows, with a current balance of 1,747,072.33 BTC. Franklin Bi, a partner at Pantera Capital, states that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US provides important validation for the cryptocurrency industry and the company is raising a new $1.25 billion fund to support emerging startups. Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin's price will fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 by August, expecting a slow upward trend.
VI. Top Gainers in the Cryptocurrency Market Last Week and Community Hot Coin Selection: The past week's top gainers in altcoins are as follows: CEL saw a significant increase, with about three times the space; TRB rose by about 70%, ABT by about 50%, and QRDO/RNDR/PHB by about 25-30%. Other coins are also in the top gainers, providing potential trading opportunities for the week.
VII. Project Token Unlock Negative Data Focus: Token Unlocks data shows that tokens like MAVIA will undergo a one-time large unlock, releasing a total value of approximately $36.16 million. MAVIA will unlock about 7.66 million tokens on May 6th at 8 am, accounting for 24.29% of the circulation, with a value of about $30.25 million.
(Note: The translation may not be verbatim due to the length and complexity of the content.)
Hashflow (HFT) will unlock approximately 13.62 million tokens at 8 am on May 7th, accounting for 3.46% of the circulation, with a value of approximately $4.22 million.
Moonbeam (GLMR) will unlock approximately 3.04 million tokens at 8 am on May 11th, accounting for 0.35% of the circulation, with a value of approximately $930,000.
Euler (EUL) will unlock approximately 67,900 tokens at 11:20 pm on May 9th, accounting for 0.36% of the circulation, with a value of approximately $390,000.
This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these token unlocks and avoid spot trading, seeking short opportunities in contracts. MAVIA, in particular, has a significant unlock, so pay close attention.
VIII. Top Concept Sector Gainers in the Cryptocurrency Market Last Week:
The performance of concept sectors in the past week is as shown above. NFT, payment concepts, Avalanche AVAX ecosystem, AI artificial intelligence, oracle, and other sectors have seen leading increases in the past seven days. Pay attention to the rotational speculation market of the coins belonging to the above-mentioned sectors with significant increases.
IX. Global Market Macro Analysis Overview:
The A-share market performed positively last week, with all three major indices recording gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.52%, 1.3%, and 1.9% respectively, indicating overall positive market sentiment. In terms of sector performance, synthetic biology, artificial meat, agricultural product processing, and household appliances were among the top gainers, reflecting investor optimism in these areas. On the other hand, declines in sectors such as tourism, low-altitude economy, automotive manufacturing, and military informatization may reflect concerns about the recovery of certain industries.
The Hong Kong stock market also showed strong upward momentum, with significant gains in the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng TECH Index. Particularly, application software, property stocks, automotive stocks, and lithium battery sectors saw significant gains, indicating increased investor confidence in these areas. Declines in sectors such as digital currency, power stocks, pork concepts, and oil stocks may be influenced by various factors such as policy adjustments and changes in market demand.
The US stock market also showed an upward trend, with gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Most large-cap tech stocks rose, especially significant gains in Apple and Tesla, demonstrating continued market enthusiasm for tech stocks. Popular Chinese concept stocks also collectively rose, indicating increased confidence from international investors in Chinese companies.
This week, there will be a dense schedule of domestic and international economic events, expected to have a significant impact on the market trend. The release of a series of important economic data in China for April, such as the Caixin Services PMI, foreign exchange reserves, and CPI annual rate, will provide new references for the market. Additionally, 56 stocks will face unlocking this week, with a significant total unlocking market value, which may have a significant impact on certain individual stocks. Monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of England, as well as speeches from several officials of the Federal Reserve, will also be closely watched by the market, and these policy dynamics may have a significant impact on global stock markets.
Overall, the A-share, Hong Kong stock, and US stock markets all showed positive trends last week, with overall positive market sentiment. However, it is important to continue monitoring the progress of important domestic and international economic events this week, as well as the specific performance of various sectors, in order to make more accurate investment decisions.
X. Future Market Judgment:
BTC experienced a decline followed by a rise at the end of April and beginning of May, dropping from around $67,230 to near $56,550, and has now rebounded to near $65,500, essentially recovering the decline from the end of April.
The logic behind the rise and fall is due to multiple factors, such as the previous decline being caused by seven consecutive days of net outflows from the ETF, technical aspects breaking through the previous range of $59,000-$60,775, and the weakening of the future rate and extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, among other reasons. The current rebound is due to the release of non-farm data in early May, technical support at the important MA120 moving average position, the appearance of a daily TD sequence 9 reversal signal, and the historical first net inflow of funds of $63 million into GBTC since the approval of the ETF, which has boosted market confidence to some extent. This can also be seen in stock prices, with Grayscale stocks rising 5% in pre-market trading on Monday, the first inflow of funds since January. Prior to this, there had been outflows of $17.46 billion. If we look purely at this angle, the current net inflow is far from the large-scale net outflows in the previous period, and even only a fraction of it, so the sustainability of the future market rally is in doubt. The upper resistance is around $67,230, which is the watershed for the long and short positions in the range, with a reference near $73,777 above it; the lower support is around $60,775-$59,000, as well as the recent low of $56,550, and these technical levels can be used as major references.
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May 6, 2024
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