• Why is the BTC halving fluctuation so small?
• Are ETFs still viable?
• What will happen in the second half of the year?

I am a cryptocurrency academician. Today, I will share my views on Bitcoin and ETFs with everyone. Due to offline training for a week, I have paused online updates for a week. Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts have been asking about the reasons for the recent market downturn, and today I will discuss my views on the cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year.

First of all, I will directly state my opinion: Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate downward, and the second half of the year will provide a good opportunity for spot market entry. I have experienced three major Bitcoin halvings, and each time the halving has preceded a market rally by six months, which is the familiar bull market to everyone.

About a month before the halving, the market rally will end, and after the halving, there will be significant fluctuations.

It is important to understand that the essence of these fluctuations is to offload assets. Most short-term traders will be cut back and forth at this point, with losses ranging from 20% to over 50%. The amplitude of fluctuations at high levels will be relatively large, making it very difficult for traders on major exchanges.

You may have noticed that the changes in Bitcoin and Ethereum are not significant, but many cryptocurrency enthusiasts have lost a significant portion of their positions, especially novice traders and most contract traders who have been heavily affected. Overall, it feels like one day there's a big bullish candle, and everyone feels that Bitcoin is heading towards the $100,000 mark, but the next day it feels like a major crash is imminent.

The academician's view is that the best trade is not to trade. Minimize trading to ensure the safety of your principal, especially for spot market novices and retail traders. Choose no more than three cryptocurrencies, and cut off any excess.

For contract trading, adhere to five principles: limit trading to one to three orders per day, avoid frequent trading; never over-leverage; learn to wait for opportunities with an empty position; prioritize capital preservation over profit; and learn to review and summarize patterns.

In simpler terms: do not open a position until the price reaches a certain level, do not open a position until a breakthrough occurs, do not open a position without a signal, do not open a position without a stop-loss level, do not open a position if the stop-loss level is too large, and do not open a position if it is not a key point.

Risk aversion comes first, making money comes second: prioritize familiar cryptocurrencies to reduce risk and increase the chance of winning.

Seize opportunities before entering: in the market, retail traders are a weak group compared to major players or institutions. Once you have mastered trading skills, making money becomes inevitable, and losing money becomes occasional.

Fight if you can win, run if you can't: follow the five basic principles of selecting a reasonable battlefield, deploying forces quickly, choosing the right time to fight, and retreating quickly after the battle. This approach may not yield high returns, but it also carries relatively low risk.

Control the risk: those who can control the risk often have the last laugh.

If you still don't understand after the academician has said so much, you should leave the cryptocurrency market. It's not suitable for you.

Some cryptocurrency enthusiasts may say that this time is different because of the ETF approval.

What the academician wants to say is that no matter what TF (ETF) is approved by the market, there will still be a process of digestion and balance, just like a person. Just because you have a big appetite now doesn't mean you should eat without restraint. No matter how big your appetite is, overeating in one go will still need to be digested.

We can understand that the future will be better, but it doesn't mean that we can become obese in one go. Therefore, the academician's view for the second half of the year is simple: look for opportunities to enter the market when the big coin (Bitcoin) starts with a 4, and in simpler terms, after it falls below 50,000, it will be an opportunity to enter the market in batches, especially for cryptocurrency enthusiasts who missed the current bull market.

Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts may find this absurd, but this is the position that should be taken after the excessive indulgence of this round. Therefore, the academician will not consider any black swan events or what BlackRock will not allow you to buy at a low price.

So, we only need to consider how a healthy development should proceed. The process in between is just to deceive children. Just remember, do contract trading in a bull market and spot trading in a bear market, have your own plan, and consult the author for specific layout and entry points.

This article is exclusively provided by the academician and represents the academician's exclusive views. The academician also hopes that all investors understand that the market is always right. If you are wrong, you should reflect on your own problems and not let the profits slip away. There is no need to be smarter than the market. When the trend comes, follow it; when there is no trend, observe and be patient. Wait for the trend to become clear before taking action. Tomorrow's success comes from today's choices. Rewards come from hard work, kindness, sincerity, trust, excellence, and dedication. Gains and losses happen inadvertently. Develop the habit of strictly setting stop-loss and take-profit levels for each trade. The academician wishes you a pleasant investment experience!

Friendly reminder: The content above is created by the author of the public account. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are not related to the author. Please discern carefully. Thank you for reading.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。