Objectively speaking, the trend has indeed reversed, but people's emotions have not turned around yet.

Setting aside production cuts, setting aside the temporary halt of the US dollar interest rate cut, setting aside the Israeli air strikes, setting aside experience, setting aside technical indicators… just looking at the candlestick chart, the daily, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts, have they all formed a bottom reversal? Have they confirmed the reversal? Have they formed an upward trend?

Before answering this question, we need to define "reversal signal," "confirmation of reversal signal," and "confirmation of trend." Otherwise, everyone's standards are different, and the results will definitely be different.

My definition of "reversal signal" is: top and bottom fractal structure.

My definition of "confirmation of reversal signal" is: after confirming the top and bottom fractals, the first candlestick of the fractal structure is named as the left one. If within the next three candles after the formation of the fractal structure, the price breaks through the highest or lowest point of the left one, the reversal signal can be confirmed.

My definition of "confirmation of trend" is: after the price reversal, it consolidates in a structure similar to a "consolidation zone," and then breaks through to form a trend.

If you can understand the above definitions, then the result you come up with should be the same as mine: the downtrend has already reversed.

This method is relatively strict for confirming reversals and trends. I believe that others who use moving averages and indicators can also see that the trend has reversed, but they do not want to admit it because their emotions have not turned around yet.

"I think I should still bet on short positions, it's a pity to close at such a high position." This should be the attitude of most short position holders. "It's a pity," "bet a little," these words are full of emotional factors. They are not unable to see the trend, but are dominated by emotions.

In the past few days, there have been at least 4 rounds of roller coasters around 62000, with a total of 8 crossings. Everyone started to analyze whether it was because of this news or that news, whether Iran would do this or that, how the previous rounds before the halving were, what's different this time… In the eyes of traders, it's just a chip wash, long positions near 70000, short positions near 60000, all have to give up their chips, otherwise how can the game continue.

The advice for everyone is to go out and play for two days on the weekend, get through these two days, and it will be easy to trade afterwards. After getting through these two days, it will be difficult not to get rich. Retail contract traders are wiped out, the chips are thoroughly washed, and the one-way market will begin. Maybe at this point, you don't have many chips left, and you are eager to break even. As long as you can survive and stay at the table, after May, you will definitely have the illusion of "making money so easily, am I the genius young investor and trader."

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