Bitcoin rebounded to a high of 66867 last night and fell back. The first resistance we reminded was 67000, which was not effectively broken through. Ethereum rebounded to a high of 3277 and fell back. The first resistance we reminded was 3240.
According to the Bitcoin halving countdown data, the current Bitcoin block height is 839276, and there are less than 1,000 blocks left until the fourth halving, which is expected to occur on the morning of April 20th (when the block height reaches 840,000).
Data from 7 leading US/Canadian listed mining companies shows that their total market value has reached 12.71 billion US dollars. Currently, they collectively hold approximately 2.79 billion US dollars worth of Bitcoin in 782 independent wallets.
The block reward for the fourth halving will decrease from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which will significantly reduce the main income of miners. As electricity is the largest expense, mining companies need to reduce operating costs to maintain a positive profit margin. Miners have been steadily selling Bitcoin, and the current Bitcoin balance of miners has dropped to 1.794 million BTC, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. Miners have sold 27,000 BTC since November last year.
Miners selling Bitcoin is not due to concerns about Bitcoin's decline, but to ensure that their business can continue to operate after the halving. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices has allowed miners to profit at higher prices and to provide funds for equipment upgrades (old inefficient mining machines need to be replaced).
Bitcoin To outperform more than 90% of investors, you must be completely opposite to 90% of people in many aspects. This is what we often refer to as going against human nature. When Bitcoin rebounded to over 72,000 on April 8th and 9th, many people said it would reach a new high. As a result, Bitcoin fell by more than ten points, and now many people immediately see 50,000, 40,000, or even 30,000. Once they enter into contracts, they are liquidated. Here's a piece of advice: do not go long below the pressure and do not go short above the support. In an upward trend, go long on pullbacks, and in a downward trend, wait for a rebound before going short. Do not chase shorts.
The rebound touched 66867 and fell back, failing to reclaim the safe zone of 68200. The downside risk has not been eliminated. Today's candlestick has fallen below the MA60. The probability of not rebounding to 53000-55000 has increased. The daily MACD fast line has crossed below the zero axis column, the OBV indicator has deviated from the yellow line, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. First, see if the candlestick will oscillate near the MA60 for a few days or if it fails to rebound to 66867-68200, then the probability of falling to 53000-55000 is very high.
Another thing to watch out for is that if it falls to the MA120 and rebounds, it must break through the previous high, otherwise, we may see another 519…
Support: Resistance:
Ethereum The daily chart touched the MA120 and rebounded but did not reclaim the first large bearish candle, indicating continued bearish strength. However, the current price is still above 3056. If Bitcoin falls to over 50,000, Ethereum will definitely drop to even lower levels, possibly 2200-2400. If Bitcoin returns to its original state, altcoins will fare even worse.
In this current or the next bull market, I personally do not have much confidence in Ethereum. In the previous bull market, Ethereum was the only standout, the only one with an ecosystem. Now there are too many chains, various layer 2 solutions, and independent chains that have fragmented too much capital. Gas fees are also relatively high. Some say SOL will surpass Ethereum, but it remains to be seen.
However, one thing to pay attention to is the reduction in Bitcoin halving rewards. Miners will definitely speculate on new coins to earn higher returns, and the most talked about is ORD. Stay tuned for my continuous tracking and sharing.
Support: Resistance:
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The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, subject to real-time updates.
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