The FTX chapter comes to an end, with SBF being sentenced to 25 years in prison in New York for a multi-billion dollar fraud and ordered to forfeit over $11 billion in assets.
Uncertainties compounded: 1. Massive BTC options expiration and quarterly options expiration, worth $9.45 billion. 2. PCE data to be released tonight at 8:30, with an expected 2.8%. 3. Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech tomorrow night at 11:30. 4. Pay attention to the volatility as the quarterly, monthly, and weekly lines all close at the same time.
Bitcoin
Yesterday, the highest point reached was 71552 before falling back. Short-term testing between 71400 and 72000 has not yet broken through effectively. The pressure here is significant, mainly because institutional forces are not taking action, making it difficult to break the previous high by relying on retail investors.
When Bitcoin surged on the 26th, I mentioned that a bearish bat pattern appeared on the 4-hour chart, continuing to grind against the 71400-72000 pressure. It has not been effectively penetrated here, so we need to be prepared for a change in offensive and defensive strategies.
The overall direction is undoubtedly bullish, but in the short term, attention should be paid to potential pullback risks. There is a gap in the CME between 64000 and 66500. Focus on the upward trend on the 4-hour chart, with support at 68600. If it falls below, there is an opportunity to fill the gap.
Support: 68600-69200
Resistance: 72000-73777
Ethereum
Ethereum has greater risk as it has been consistently below the daily BOLL lower rail and the entire BOLL has turned downward. OBV shows continuous outflow of funds, and the RSI indicator has turned. Focus on the upward trend line on the 4-hour chart, as breaking it would open up downward space. A retest of the low is not ruled out, and it may even go lower.
Support: 3300-3460
Resistance: 3700-3900
Here, it is also necessary to pay attention to the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking below the daily box, which has been in this range since November last year. There is a demand for rebound on the 4-hour chart. If it fails to recover after breaking through, it is very dangerous for Ethereum and other altcoins.
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The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, subject to real-time updates.
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