Analysis of the DePIN track

CN
1 year ago

In the previous articles, I shared some basic views on the AI+ blockchain track and my opinions on some projects.

Most of the projects mentioned are far from my ideal decentralized AI, and even have a certain gap from my expectations of using AI in blockchain or using blockchain in AI.

Some projects, although I like their creativity and direction, still need time to prove whether they can be implemented. Some of these projects have issued tokens. However, in terms of cost-effectiveness, their prices are not low now. For a project that is still in exploration but does not have a clear price advantage, whether this is good or bad can only be tested by the market.

In addition to AI, another track that will be hotly discussed in the upcoming bull market is DePIN.

This track actually has many similarities with AI+ blockchain: they both expect to widely use physical devices in the real world, and both emphasize the use of "idle" resources.

So many existing so-called AI+ blockchain projects can also be seen as DePIN projects.

But compared to AI+ blockchain, I think DePIN projects have a unique feature: they already have a certain prototype and are widely present in our real life.

In my opinion, DiDi Chuxing is a project that is very close to DePIN.

However, it is not decentralized, just a distributed system. Because it is not decentralized, we can see all the problems that we see in centralized systems. Therefore, it is natural to think about using blockchain to transform this industry (such as adding incentive mechanisms) and eliminate the various problems it has.

This is not only the train of thought of many DePIN projects now, but also the train of thought of many projects during the ICO boom in 2017.

However, after these years of development, most of these projects seem to have not shown a crushing advantage over their "centralized" competitors.

Instead, I see another phenomenon worth noting: these projects have basically not used "idle resources" but have used new resources. How many people are really using their idle second-hand hard drives, second-hand XX, etc., to participate in project mining? It is probably more common to purchase more powerful and superior new equipment to participate, right?

This not only does not improve the utilization of existing resources, but also creates more future "idle resources."

In terms of improving the utilization of existing resources, they are not as good as DiDi Chuxing. DiDi's use of idle resources (idle cars) is more efficient than the majority of DePIN projects in the crypto ecosystem.

If the decentralized way of improving resource utilization is not outstanding in the practice of most projects, where is the real significance and comparative advantage of DePIN projects?

Is this business idea not feasible, or is there a problem with the current technical solution?

The DePIN projects that appeared in 2017 did not answer these questions well, and I think the new projects that have emerged in large numbers have not given a clear answer, or at least their ideas and past projects do not seem fundamentally different.

Of course, among the many DePIN projects, some have made bold explorations and proposed new ideas and solutions, which are worth noting, but whether they can achieve the desired effects in the implementation process still needs to be tested.

I often emphasize a viewpoint:

When a new track or project is just born, if the public thinks that this track or project is worth looking forward to, I will be even more cautious, because this expectation is likely to be disappointed or may be realized in a way that we cannot imagine.

Take Arweave and Filecoin as examples. When Arweave went online, it was quiet and received very little attention, but Filecoin was highly anticipated before it went online. The results later proved this.

Similarly, for the DePIN track that is now "booming" again, of course, I hope it can truly erupt. But so far, I always feel that most projects have not shown much fundamental innovation. What I see in them is more of the halo of capital and the innovation of concepts, rather than substantial breakthroughs.

Of course, these questions are unlikely to affect the token holders of these projects in the upcoming bull market. But there is a huge difference between making quick money and discovering truly long-term projects. Making quick money is a game, while discovering truly long-term projects is about improving one's level of thinking and discernment.

I always hope that both myself and our readers can maintain a sense of calm and independence while participating in the game.

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