In the previous article "Butterfly Wings May Have Flapped, Delivery Season Market Should Not Be Taken Lightly," we mentioned that the adjustment of the Nikkei Index over the weekend may be the flapping of butterfly wings. The Nikkei Index opened low and went lower on Monday, and on Tuesday, the US CPI for February was announced, and on Thursday, the US core PPI for February was announced. All the data indicates increased inflationary pressure in the United States, pushing up the US dollar index, and causing a general decline in non-US currencies.

The decline began after the PPI data was released on March 14th, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly. Trading pairs such as USDJPY and USDEUR began to break through the consolidation range and rebounded upwards. Bitcoin also began to weaken around the same time.

Hourly chart of the US dollar index

Hourly chart of USD/JPY trading pair

Hourly chart of USD/EUR trading pair

From a technical perspective, the US dollar index may still have upward potential at the hourly level. Therefore, other non-US currencies, including blockchain, will also begin a period of consolidation at the hourly level to digest the gains accumulated over the past month. This is a very good opportunity for the blockchain market and other investment markets. Based on the current known information, the expectation of a future interest rate cut by the US dollar is unlikely to change, and the downward trend of the US dollar index on the weekly chart has not changed temporarily. Therefore, non-US currencies will continue to maintain an upward trend in the overall trend.

Weekly chart of the US dollar index

So, the hourly adjustment is an opportunity for capital to enter, just as before the next punch, you always have to pull back your arm to exert force again. Whether for smart capital or professional traders, in principle, varieties without a pullback should not enter the market. Because it has not undergone chip cleansing, no chip exchange, which means no support, no reference for stop loss.

Observing from the Bitcoin chart, as of 20:05, there has been no reversal signal on the hourly and higher timeframes for Bitcoin, nor has there been any bottom confirmation. Therefore, it is recommended for short-term traders to reduce positions on rallies, because no one can truly predict the bottom. Subjectively, there may be, but objectively not. The factors that determine the final trend are chaotic, and the information that each trader can obtain is limited. Therefore, the so-called certainty only exists subjectively, so the so-called prediction is more like a guess, a bet.

Since the choice is to adjust, this kind of adjustment should at least be reflected on the weekly chart, which also conforms to our observation and summary in the previous article. From observing various securities and futures varieties in recent years, when prices break through new highs, it does not trigger an unstoppable market, but rather a turning point. Only after a deep retracement, the next breakthrough is possible, forming an effective breakthrough. Of course, this is only a historical statistic and cannot represent the result of the next time. What is important in trading is adaptability, and prediction is only to propose possibilities.

March is the delivery season for futures battles. Let's watch the various gods fight, and we just need to wait to receive the bodies.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。