Daily Sharing

Bitcoin surged to near 70,000 again last night, and the short-term trend is still quite strong. After the flash crash a few days ago, it hit a new high again. In this situation, it's better to hold the coins and wait for the rise. At the contract level, it's still better to maintain low leverage and low frequency for operation. Bulls in the contract market are prone to getting liquidated. Some members complained that the long positions of WLD were liquidated last night, and the market started to explode. In a bull market, holding spot positions is often better than holding contracts.

To illustrate, let's say A opened a contract for a certain altcoin with 1000u, and B bought the same altcoin in spot with 1000u. If A successfully holds until the explosion, A will earn much more than B, but A's risk is much greater. A may face liquidation or be liquidated and even have to bear the capital erosion caused by high fees. Meanwhile, if the coin does not explode as expected in the short term and violently drops instead, A will face an awkward situation of neither setting a stop-loss nor not setting a stop-loss. On the other hand, after B's leveraged position experiences a drawdown, there is a high probability of breaking even or even making a profit in a bull market.

Although B's profit may accumulate more slowly, in a bull market, it often compounds multiple times. For example, if the first coin rises by 50%, the second coin rises by 30%, and the third coin doubles, B can actually earn 1000✖1.5✖1.3✖2=3900, which is effectively 3.9 times the initial investment, and it's relatively stable. However, A's profit level is very unstable, sometimes making a profit and sometimes losing, and may ultimately end up losing despite making some profits along the way.

Therefore, it is believed that the focus should be different at different times. When the market experiences a lot of explosions and the fluctuation range increases, actively reducing leverage may help to survive longer.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

The current market is a lying-down profit market, and the operation is simple. When there is a significant pullback, buy spot directly. Buy big during big drops, and buy small during small drops. Hold spot positions until the rebound at the daily level of Bitcoin is complete. In this phase where everyone can make money, whether with or without my analysis, there is not much difference. Therefore, for now, I will provide a simple update.

Here, it is emphasized that the current market is a continuous uptrend. If the coin you bought performs well, it's not because you are particularly skilled, but because the market environment itself is conducive to making money. Don't get too complacent just because you picked the right coin, as it often leads to disappointment. If the coin you bought doesn't rise much in the short term, don't doubt yourself. Market fluctuations happen in due time, and after sufficient adjustments and prolonged market manipulation, an explosion can happen in an instant.

On the 1-hour chart, the structure of the downward pin that occurred a few days ago can only be viewed according to the construction of the third 1-hour level. The current rebound from the last 1-hour level has once again hit a new high. If there is a 1-hour level pullback in the next few days, as long as it does not fall below 63,000, there is still a possibility of a three-buy rebound and then a new high, as indicated by the white arrow in the image above. If the subsequent pullback breaks the 1-hour candlestick below 63,000, there may be a 4-hour level pullback, but the expectation is at most a retest of around 59,000 or 60,000, as indicated by the yellow arrow in the image above.

The overall target remains around 76,000.

ETH

Ethereum has been hitting new highs every day. In the short term, it is seen whether it will continue to surge to the 4000-4100 range and then experience a 1-hour level pullback. As long as Ethereum continues to stay above 3500 in the short term, it is still biased towards the long side. Although it continues to hit new highs, it is still quite challenging to go long, mainly due to the difficulty in finding the right entry and stop-loss points. It is recommended to wait for a 1-hour pullback before getting involved.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Upward, currently a continuation of the rebound from 15,476, with attention to the subsequent daily level situation

Daily Level: Upward, very likely to go above 75,000

4-hour Level: Upward, continuing to extend, effective break below 63,000 will indicate a 4-hour pullback

1-hour Level: Upward, short-term attention to the resistance around 70,000

15-minute Level: Sideways down, observe around 67,000 at the 15-minute level

Feel free to follow my public account for discussions and exchanges:

The article is time-sensitive, so be mindful of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。