Master, let's talk about the hot topics:

First, let's review Powell's remarks at the House hearing, the general idea is that there will definitely be a rate cut this year. However, they need to be more confident about inflation before they can cut rates, and the specific timing of action depends on the economic situation. He also believes that they won't wait until inflation drops to 2% to start monetary easing. Currently, the market's interpretation of this statement is dovish, and the main reason for the rebound in the US stock market these past two days is this. The latest CME forecast for a rate cut in June has risen to 70%.

Another point is the ADP employment data, the forecast for new job additions was 150,000. The reported value is 140,000, lower than expected, which is considered slightly positive for the market. However, this data has shown the opposite of the non-farm employment data many times before, so ultimately we still need to see tonight's employment numbers and the unemployment rate.

Powell's latest speech has new viewpoints. Powell said: Fully aware of the risk of cutting rates too late, it's not far from being confident about cutting rates; can see reasons to shorten the duration of held bonds, there is still a long way to go before considering the introduction of central bank digital currency; it is expected that (small and medium) bank failures will be triggered by commercial real estate.

The Federal Reserve - Bowman reiterated that it is "not yet" the time to cut rates, and if inflation reverses, they are still willing to raise rates; Mester: It may be appropriate to cut rates later this year, not very concerned that cutting rates will exacerbate inflation. Considering raising long-term interest rate forecasts.

At the macro level, various signs now indicate that a rate cut is really not far away, a conservative estimate is in June this year. Let's look forward to the halving, rate cut, and the overlapping effect of ETF, which will bring about unimaginable changes.

Bitcoin ETF net inflows were $332 million, although this number is not small, it is still nearly halved compared to the previous net inflow of $648 million. The decrease in fund inflows is also one of the reasons why Bitcoin did not continue to surge to 69,000 in the past two days.

In addition, the founder of MicroStrategy continued to talk about Bitcoin ETF, stating that Bitcoin ETFs have now begun to compete with the S&P 500 and will surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class in the future.

The market experienced a high and then a fall the night before last, and after yesterday's rebound, the price is currently stable around 67,000. Based on the performance of the last round when Bitcoin broke the previous high, this consolidation phase should last about 10 days. If we also consider the external factors of this round of ETF, this adjustment period may be shortened to less than a week.

Master's trend analysis:

The current trend of the market needs to reach the integer level of 70,000 and stabilize at 72,000 in order to open up the upward space, and then it can reach around 80,000. As long as it stays within the range of 76,000-80,000, everyone needs to pay attention to the pinning.

This is similar to what I said last time about the range of 68,000-72,000, a thousand points overnight. So, friends who trade contracts in the current market need to pay attention to pinning, while spot traders do not need to worry too much, and should focus on the support level in the range of 65,000-65,600 on an intraday basis.

The market for ETH will gradually reach a new high, and the current range to watch on the upside is first to stabilize at 4,000. The second step is to stabilize at 4,200, and the third step is to approach or reach the height of 4,500. At this point, it will be very close to the historical high, as long as there is an opportunity for a pullback or pinning, you can enter the market for trading.

Currently, the intraday support level for ETH can be around 3,720-3,800.

Master's short-term pre-set orders for March 8:

BTC trading advice:

Long near 65,700-66,100, defend at 400, target 66,900-67,300

ETH trading advice:

Long near 3,740-3,780, defend at 40, target 3,870-3,940

For more strategies, you can add real trading.

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% trend following; daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web. Friendly reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official public account (as shown in the image above), and other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are not related to the author. Please discern carefully between true and false, thank you for reading.

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