On May 18, 2026, the US-Iran nuclear talks lost patience away from the television cameras: According to sources from Al Jazeera quoting US officials, Iran was informed that "only a few days remain, not weeks," to break the deadlock, or else Trump was inclined to turn to military options in the absence of progress; almost simultaneously, according to Tasnim News Agency, Tehran insisted that the US pay war reparations and return frozen assets in a clear manner, making the stakes of the negotiations feel more like a final confrontation before war. And as the storm clouds gathered,

Wosh has long advocated for "less intervention and balance sheet reduction," but reality is forcing him to make difficult choices between inflation, the bond market, and economic stability, none of which are easy paths.

Can 78000 be sustained? If not, the next stop is 75000.

Once Japanese institutional investors begin to systematically reduce their holdings, the impact on the supply and demand dynamics of U.S. Treasury bonds will be substantial.

On May 18, 2026, the shadow of accelerating inflation weighed on global markets, and investors voted with their feet: selling bonds and pushing up the risk-free interest rate anchor. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond soared to 5.16%, reaching a new high since October 2023, with the 10-year yield around 4.63% and the 2-year yield around 4.10%. The entire U.S. yield curve was shifted upward. Oil prices continued to rise against the backdrop of tensions related to Iran and President Trump applying pressure on Iran, alongside concerns about inflation, energy, and geopolitics.

1. CEX Popular Cryptocurrencies CEX Trading Volume Top 10 and 24-hour Price Change: BTC: -1.16% ETH: -2.64% SOL: -1.13% XRP: -1.11% ZEC: +4.91% DOGE: -1.63% BNB: -0.99% SUI: -1.02% EDEN: +30.51% TON: +4.12% 24-hour Price Increase Ranking (Data Source: OKX): SPACE: +16.58% VINE: +15...

In mid-May 2026, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury finally shattered that psychological red line — 5% was officially surpassed, a level not seen in twenty years flickering on the screen, prompting a global bond market to collectively "run for cover." Almost simultaneously, far away in Tokyo, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond was lifted to about 2.8%, a new thirty-year high declaring that the upward pressure on interest rates was no longer just "an American problem." The bond market sell-off spread outward: a mid-session plummet in Seoul triggered a circuit breaker, and the gold that was supposed to strengthen amid panic...

From May 17 to 18, 2026, the smell of gunpowder in the Middle East first wafted out through the phone - Trump warned Iran during a call with Axios that "time is running out," threatening that if a "better deal" could not be reached, they would face "heavier strikes," and specifically mentioned that he would be discussing military action options against Iran in the situation room on Tuesday; almost simultaneously, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to him for about half an hour, with the core topic also being the possibility of resuming military strikes against Iran, according to Israeli officials.

Next week's key forecast: On May 21, the Federal Reserve will release the last FOMC meeting minutes of the "Powell era"; Nvidia will announce its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday, Beijing time; On May 22, the Qian Zhimin money laundering case will have cross-border claims exceeding 120,000 people, with registration for recovery ending on May 22; Other (specific time not yet determined) sources: The U.S. and Israel may resume military actions against Iran as early as next week; SpaceX may publicly submit its IPO application as early as next week, and Musk stated that he will not sell any SpaceX shares;...

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5, sending unfavorable signals.

In the legislative corridor of the United States Congress, two seemingly unrelated clues are being intertwined: on one side is the "Save America Act," publicly thrown out by Trump, who in his latest statement declared that the act "must be passed right now" and openly threatened to use the housing bill and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) as leverage to force Congress to legislate on election security, immigration, and housing issues according to his pace; on the other side, it is seen in the industry as federal regulation for digital assets being built.

The confrontation between the United States and Iran was reignited on May 16: U.S. sources stated that the Pentagon is preparing to resume military actions against Iran, with options ranging from more intense airstrikes to special forces ground operations. In contrast, Iran emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal shipping after the current unstable situation ends, while simultaneously keeping this globally critical energy passage under the shadow of "indeterminacy." Geopolitical risk premiums are rising, and concerns over energy and inflation are resurfacing, already high leverage…

May 15, 2026, is a day when macro signals densely overlapped: the Dow Jones fell over 1%, the Nasdaq dropped about 1.8%, the S&P 500 declined around 1.27%, and companies like Nvidia, Coherent, Micron, and Tesla collectively adjusted in the range of 3%-6%, while crypto-related assets did not decline in unison—GEMI surged against the trend by about 38.68%, IREN increased by about 3.57%, and MARA only slightly fell by about 0.09%. At the same time, Trump concluded his visit to China and discussed the US-Iran ceasefire on "Air Force One."