小龙先生|11月 05, 2026 23:42
⚡️If Bitcoin falls below 70K, how many cards does the bull market have left?
The US stock market woke everyone up to reality last night.
The Nasdaq plummeted 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 12%, AI hardware chains collapsed, and Bitcoin followed suit, falling to around 76K. The AI narrative is on the verge of collapse!
The question now is: If 70K can't hold, is the Bitcoin bull market still going?
My conclusion first: 70K is not the dividing line between bull and bear markets, but rather the dividing line between a "healthy correction" and a "deep correction."
It's the overlap of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on the larger cycle and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on the smaller cycle.
Breaking below it changes the nature of the correction, but it doesn't mean the bull market has failed.
The real bull-bear dividing line is at 58K.
That's the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the larger cycle, and also the anchor point for the bear market bottom at 57,800.
Breaking below this level signifies a complete failure of the bull market.
So, if the price of BTC falls below 70K, where will it go?
First stop: 67,700.
The 200-week moving average, a solid cost support for long-term holders.
Historically, it has never been effectively broken. It was briefly breached in 2022, but recovered within three months.
I believe this is the most likely point of bottoming out.
Second stop: 62K-63K.
A deep mid-cycle support level, a densely traded area from the first half of 2024.
A drop to this level is possible, but only if the AI narrative truly collapses.
However, the cracks in the AI bubble are widening!
A true collapse of the AI narrative is not impossible.
Why is it possible?
Because the root cause of this decline is tightening liquidity + Democratic restrictions on AI data center construction;
US Treasury yields at 4.95%, the interest rate hike cycle not yet over, ETFs lacking cohesion, miners selling off and investing in AI, and internal divisions among whales.
Unresolved issues will prevent a sustained rebound.
But we shouldn't be too pessimistic.
The deeper the fall, the greater the opportunity.
67,700 is a long-term golden buying point.
62,000-63,000 is the deep water zone after extreme panic.
Historically, the number of times the price has fallen below the 200-week moving average is very small, and each time presents an opportunity.
How to operate?
If the price falls below 70K,
then, try a small position near 67,700.
62,000-63,000: Extreme entry point.
Each entry should be small, with total position size controlled within 15%.
Because you don't know where the bottom is, guessing the bottom is the most expensive thing.
In short:
70,000 is the watershed for the pullback;
62,000 is the possible deep water zone;
58,000 is the bull-bear dividing line.
Where it falls to is not important.
What's important is that with each drop,
your position and funds remain.
The period from November 2026 to May 2027 is destined to be a very complex and dangerous time, and also the time when the price will fall out of the BTC "golden pit".
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