灯塔说
灯塔说|10月 31, 2026 02:26
It's the last day of October. At times like this, I want to cut ties with the past (including positions) and start afresh. My strategy for holding onto losing positions and going long on gold was too subjective and involved too much speculation. The main reasons were skepticism about Trump's "TACO" policy, expectations for US-Iran negotiations, and a connection to the decline in oil prices. Gold prices are currently most sensitive to these factors. However, a crucial issue was overlooked: high interest rates! This is the core issue; under high interest rates, gold is unlikely to reverse course. Although there is still a chance for de-escalation between the US and Iran, I can no longer hold onto my positions. Cutting losses on contracts isn't about being bearish, but about eliminating incorrect trades (why cut losses? Because of the erroneous decision to hold onto losing positions and the daily chart breaking below the previous low, forming a continuation of the downward trend. Even though the price is low, I followed the trend and stopped the loss). I remain optimistic about gold's future. Global central bank gold purchases, the US fiscal deficit, debt financing costs, and the trend of global reserve asset diversification all support gold's strategic allocation value. The next major opportunity for gold may not come from war, but from the end of the high-interest-rate cycle and the repricing of global confidence in the dollar. Let's see how future interest rates are priced in at the policy meetings after December.
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