Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|Oct 27, 2026 12:48
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged +𝟭𝟳.𝟮% in the 12 months following Midterm elections — finishing higher in 𝟭𝟳 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟵 post-midterm years. That's nearly 4x the +4.6% average during midterm years themselves and more than double the +8.1% in Presidential election years.
Q4 of midterm years has delivered +6.6% on average since 1950, the strongest quarterly return of the entire cycle. With 2026 midterms in early November, the historical pattern sets up a risk-on tailwind for equities heading into year-end.
𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: A 17-of-19 hit rate across 75 years is a strong structural pattern, though not guaranteed to repeat. The SP500 perp on Hyperliquid is the direct tradeable instrument. The cross-asset read is risk-on: equity strength post-midterm historically coincides with BTC catching the same risk appetite wave. Watch whether the 2026 cycle confirms or breaks the pattern.
source: KobeissiLetter
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