《Three-in-One Trading System｜BTC Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Patterns and Core Judgments》 ----- A breakout is imminent—keep a close eye on catalysts and prepare your trading plan. Structural Pattern: BTC price is currently moving within a daily-level descending triangle. The structure is converging, trading volume is shrinking, and price volatility is narrowing—this is a strong signal that a breakout is about to occur. Little Dragon’s Core Judgments: Currently, the market is still in a narrow range of consolidation, with both bulls and bears waiting for a catalyst or timing for the breakout. 1. AI credit risk is shifting from valuation to debt. CoreWeave’s CDS spread has surged above 1,100 basis points, marking the first time the market has priced AI infrastructure debt risk this high. Funds are moving away from semiconductors toward healthcare and banking, while demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries is rising. QCP notes: BTC is relatively resilient, but there’s no evidence yet of institutional funds directly flowing into the crypto market. This resilience is due to “not being sold off yet,” rather than “being actively bought.” 2. Volatility structure is a hidden risk point. Implied volatility is below the average of the past year, and market makers’ positive gamma is temporarily keeping the price locked within a range. However, after options expiration and position exits, the stabilizing effect will weaken. Low volatility only indicates that the stabilizer has a time limit; the risk hasn’t disappeared. Key range: 80K-88K. If U.S. equities continue deleveraging, the 80K support level will be threatened. If U.S. Treasuries strengthen and the dollar weakens, it will provide support. Once a breakout occurs to the upside, the price could surge to around 88K, or even 95K. 80.5K is the critical defense level. If it holds, the price will continue grinding; if it breaks, watch for 80K or even 77K. The sustainability of BlackRock inflows and whether AI credit risk escalates are the two most important factors to monitor. Be patient and wait for the breakout to happen. Prepare for both scenarios and have your trading plan ready to handle the post-breakout market with ease.