The U.S. midterm elections come with a nearly century-old curse: the stock market tends to cool off! With less than a month to go until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, Capital Group backtested U.S. stock market performance since 1931: It found that the average return of the S&P 500 during midterm election years is only 4.7%, compared to 9.5% in other years—almost double the difference. Uncertainty around policies increases before the elections, making the market prone to volatility. But after the elections, the trend often reverses. Now, applying this pattern to Bitcoin makes things even more interesting. 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all U.S. midterm election years—and coincidentally, they were also the three major bear markets in BTC’s history. In those three calendar years, Bitcoin dropped approximately 56%, 73%, and 64%, respectively. 2026 will be another midterm election year. We’ve already made it through the toughest Q1 and Q2 this year. In just another month, after the midterms, it’ll be smooth sailing to the stars. Here’s another historical trend: Since 1950, in the 12 months following U.S. midterm elections, the S&P 500 has averaged a 15.4% gain.