小龙先生|Oct 15, 2026 12:13
"Three-in-One Trading System | BTC Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Patterns and Core Judgments"
Structural Patterns: 81K is the short-term dividing line, 80K is the critical threshold.
Below 80K is the short-term liquidation zone for longs. Glassnode data shows that the area below $80K and near $88K corresponds to similar-sized potential liquidation zones. Breaking below $80K will trigger forced liquidation for longs, while rebounding to $88K will trigger short covering.
Resistance above lies at 82K-83K, which is the rebound high after the CPI release. The rebound space is limited.
Core Judgment by Xiaolong:
CPI exceeding expectations has reignited rate hike concerns, creating short-term bearish pressure. 80K is the key short-term threshold—holding above it suggests consolidation and momentum building, while breaking below it points to 75K-77K.
The unfavorable macro fundamentals + BTC's progressively lower rebound highs + weakening long momentum + Bitcoin selling by ETF institutions and short-term profit-takers all confirm the undeniable fact that the bull market is retreating.
Historical U.S. midterm election data shows a high probability of Bitcoin dropping significantly after midterms, coupled with the December rate hike being a certainty.
I predict an increasing likelihood of weekly-level downward corrections for Bitcoin, with the possibility of dropping to 70K becoming more apparent.
⚠️ Avoid bottom-fishing BTC for now. Consider waiting for two key timing points: after the midterm elections and after the December rate hike, to buy in batches.
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