$200 oil isn’t just a worst-case scenario anymore. It is on the table. That didn’t come from an armchair economist. It came from Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the largest independent oil trader on Earth. His warning: without the Hormuz shuttle and those ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, “you do have that $200-a-barrel scenario.” Those transfers are what is keeping roughly 14 million barrels a day moving. The terrifying part? Western reserves are down to critical lows. If nothing changes, the world will be running on fumes.