Investment Reading Notes: "Reasons for Bull Market", the rhythm of 10 major bull markets in a century, be a long-term thinker and cross bull and bear markets! This book was recommended by Professor Meng Yan (author of "Investment Lesson 1") at a summit forum last year, but the reason for the recommendation was not to let us search for the password of a bull market in the book. There are countless reasons for a bull market, and only after the fact can we know what will happen next. What is the significance of reading this book? Experience the ups and downs of the market! Only by witnessing the tumultuous waves of the deep sea can one gaze into the distance when the wind and waves approach! This book is the author's examination of 10 major bull markets in the US stock market over the past 100 years (with annual returns exceeding 35%), documenting financial data, official policies, renowned journals, and celebrity reviews at the time. The author discovered common conditions that promote bull markets, as well as information that contradicts Wall Street's usual statements, which has certain reference significance. Reading this book is more about empathy, with fewer excerpts: 1、 The winning formula for bull markets The author examines each bull market from five aspects, namely: Expected increase in corporate profits Psychological transformation ➌ Ultra long cycle Action Response ➎ Loose credit The final formula is: depressed prices+sudden credit easing At the end of this book, the author provides the reasons given by Barron's Weekly in 1995, which is consistent with the feeling of reading the entire book: It is the combined effect of expanding returns, low interest rates, moderate inflation, and a strengthening US dollar! 2、 The Stock Market Game during World War I If the United States is determined to completely stay out of the conflict, war is bad. At present, if this country is willing to intervene financially, war is good. But if the United States decides to intervene militarily, the war will become bad again. Finally, no matter how destructive war is or how it reflects human foolishness, it is very beneficial for certain companies in advantageous positions. Because the wonder of war orders is that their total size cannot be estimated. Foreign buyers who purchase military supplies naturally hope for confidentiality, and manufacturers generally respect this. Therefore, stock salespeople can fabricate numbers out of thin air. A company's stock soared as Wall Street estimated it had received $100 million in war orders - management believed the actual number was less than $20 million. 3、 Stock quotation method Before October 13, 1915, the New York Stock Exchange quoted stocks on a percentage basis. For example, a stock priced at $60 is sold at a 40% discount on its face value of $100. This is because in those years, responsible investors viewed common stocks as inferior bonds. After that, it will be priced in US dollars. This is a significant shift in people's perception of stocks! 4、 Chaplin saved his wealth On the night before the 1929 crash, Charlie Chaplin had dinner with his good friend Owen Berlin. Chaplin suggested that Berlin convert the profits earned into cash, which he had already done in 1928. But Berlin accused him of being unpatriotic and loudly said, "What's going on, you're short selling America To survive in the stock market for a long enough time, one must learn to be rational. Allowing one emotion to dominate all your judgment criteria is a very dangerous thing. You can't judge whether Charlie Chaplin loves his country or not from buying and selling stocks. Don't exaggerate everything, it's better to deal with things rationally! 5、 The only thing worth fearing is fear itself This is a promise made by Roosevelt to the American people in his inaugural speech in March 1933. Before a bull market, it is often a bear market, and 1933 was no exception. The Great Depression of 1929 completely shattered the successful investors of the 'New Era'. At that time, expecting to make a fortune in the stock market was very outrageous. But the reality is that in 1933, the stock market returned 53.97%! 6、 The Eve of the 1935 Bull Market Based on limited statistical data at the time, the unemployment rate at the end of 1934 was not lower than at the beginning of 1933. Despite government spending reaching the highest level in peacetime history to stimulate the economy, the unemployment situation has not improved. In 1934, in order to fill the deficit, credit expansion led to a sharp increase in bank deposits, but private enterprises showed little interest in commercial loans. The more government debt there is, the less private capital is willing to enter the normal long-term job market, "according to The Wall Street Journal If brothers hold onto the form of searching for bull market codes, then this book will disappoint you. If you are just looking for the rhythm of the historical bull market in the United States, enhancing your confidence in holding high-quality stocks during market volatility, and being a long-term advocate, this book is valuable!