Whale Factor
Whale Factor|Oct 04, 2026 05:10
🐋 WHALE WATCH : What happens if Bitcoin breaks 85000 dollars ? The answer lies in the $2.6 billion in short positions stacked above the price. Bitcoin has been trying to break 85000 dollars for 10 days. The price has climbed above this level 6 times and pulled back 6 times. On October 2 BTC rose as high as 87220 dollars and fell back below 85000 dollars the same day. Bitcoin pulls back on every attempt but in the meantime fuel is building up above the price. I will show you where that fuel is and at what price it kicks in. First why cant the price stay above 85000 dollars ? Theres a sell wall at 85,000 dollars. As the price approaches this level, dealers sell Bitcoin to balance the risk. On every 1% rise they sell $129 million worth of Bitcoin around 1500 Bitcoin. On the same rise, they also buy $104 million worth of Bitcoin. Thats why the net selling at 85000 dollars is $26 million. The real big selling is waiting at higher prices. Theres $61 million in net selling at 88000 dollars, and $81 million at 90000 dollars. Net dealer position is plus $384 million. Dealers sell Bitcoin when the price rises buy Bitcoin when it falls and slow down every attempt. So wheres the fuel? If the price reaches 88684 dollars$2.61 billion in short positions gets liquidated. A week ago this figure was $1.67 billion. In other words while the price has stayed in the same place the short positions above it increased by about $1 billion in one week. The long positions below the price are $1.29 billion and haven't changed in a week. What happens if the price rises sharply? When short positions get liquidated, the crypto exchange closes that position by buying Bitcoin. So every liquidated short position means a new Bitcoin purchase. On October 2 I wrote that the real move would depend on one of two things. Either the wall would shrink or a buy bigger than the selling at the wall would come. The source of that buy is the short positions above the price. The wall is also shrinking. 61% of the positions at 85,000 dollars expire on October 4 and 5. On September 25 contracts expired and the wall shrank. When the price approached the wall grew again. Thats why I will check the chart again on Monday. 67% of big accounts positions are on the long side and this ratio hasnt dropped below 65% in 30 days. In my view the direction is up. If theres a daily close above 85000 dollars the next wall is at 88000 dollars. If 88000 dollars is broken short positions start getting liquidated and the rise accelerates. If the wall rebuilds on Monday the wait drags on. This analysis is my opinion not investment advice. Data changes in real time. I will keep updating.
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