Wintermute Weekly Report: Continued hawkish divergence in the Federal Reserve, AI giant fund forced liquidation On August 4th, according to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@ wintermute_t), the macro and cryptocurrency markets have experienced multiple shocks in the past week. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a vote of 9:3, while officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office where there were disagreements. The yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once hit 5.24%, a new high since July 2007, and the 10-year yield was 4.67%. The yield curve is bearish, indicating that the market has doubts about the credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation policy. At the stock market level, the AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (owned by Leopold Aschenbrenner) experienced a sudden drop in size from $45 billion in early July to approximately $10 billion due to its high leverage of up to 400%, forcing it to sell all its public holdings to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the continued decline in chip stocks in July. On the cryptocurrency level, BTC fell 2.84% and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes that the main sellers are almost exhausted and the painful trading direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months, and the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high; The US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $61.5 million in a single week, while the ETH ETF had a net inflow for four consecutive weeks. In addition, a firmware vulnerability in Coldcard resulted in approximately $70 million worth of BTC being stolen, Strategy sold BTC again, the CLARITY Act was put on hold, and Storj filed for bankruptcy. Wintermute pointed out that this week's focus is on the August 5th ISM service industry data and the August 7th non farm payroll report. The Jackson Hole Conference on August 27-29 will be the last policy signal window before the September interest rate meeting.