深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|Aug 03, 2026 04:25
[Bernstein: Apple's Gross Margin Under Pressure, Market May Underestimate Mid-to-Long-Term Logic] According to Deep Tide TechFlow, based on research from Tide Research, Bernstein's July 31 report shows that Apple's Q3 revenue reached $109.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. Actual earnings per share were $1.91, slightly exceeding the market expectation of $1.89. Excluding the impact of tariff rebates, the actual gross margin was 48.1%, at the midpoint of guidance. Q4 revenue growth guidance was lowered to 9% to 11%, with gross margin guidance at 47% to 48%, a sequential compression of approximately 160 basis points, primarily due to rising memory costs. iPhone revenue was $54.3 billion (up 22%), and Mac revenue was $10.4 billion (up 29%), both exceeding expectations. Service revenue was $30.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but below the expected $31.4 billion. Bernstein maintained an "Outperform" rating and raised the target price from $350 to $370, corresponding to approximately 33 times FY2028 earnings per share. Memory inflation is expected to persist for several more quarters, but Apple's market share is expanding, and the AI-driven upgrade cycle is the long-term logic. Bernstein believes the market's concerns about short-term memory costs are overblown and that it underestimates Apple's mid-to-long-term value.
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