UNICORN⚡️🦄|Jul 30, 2026 00:50
The Fed's reaction function has shifted, and the importance of short-term rate hikes has diminished.
Waller pointed out that both nominal and real yields on U.S. Treasuries have risen significantly between meetings, meaning the market has already done the tightening for the Fed.
At this meeting, Waller introduced his reaction function for the first time:
1. The Fed is deliberately downplaying its role, as the market is already ahead of the Fed.
2. When employment is roughly balanced, as long as underlying inflation trends upward, the Fed will lean toward tightening policy. It won’t easily "look through" supply shock inflation but will focus on the persistence of inflation diffusion.
3. As long as the price stability target is achieved and underlying inflation trends downward, the Fed will lean toward easing policy.
Although Waller repeatedly emphasized his determination to fight inflation, he also mentioned a preference for a more comprehensive inflation measure than PCE and hinted that a new inflation metric might be introduced before January next year.
Until the Fed establishes a new inflation measure or confirms that high inflation has broadly spread, keeping rates unchanged remains the baseline scenario.
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