Aside from the factors mentioned earlier, this wave of decline has also overlooked the impact of U.S. Treasury bonds: last Thursday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 4.7%. Since then, crude oil and U.S. stocks have plummeted. Friends familiar with Trump and the U.S. capital markets will understand that this is no coincidence. Previously, people were complaining about how the market didn’t react when it hit Trump’s usual TACO value, but now the reaction is here, and the panic has caused everyone to forget the original trigger point. https://(x.com)/Trader_S18/status/2080272251648373067 High yields on U.S. Treasuries act like a vacuum for market cash flow. What’s especially alarming is that even with oil prices dropping $14 last week, it didn’t significantly push yields down. This means AI companies now face a brutally tough comparison: should you buy 30-year U.S. Treasuries and lock in a nominal yield of over 5%, or invest in AI stocks and take on risks like valuation, tech roadmap, competition from China, capital expenditure, and profit realization? Many AI projects themselves still need financing at costs close to or even higher than U.S. Treasury yields. When the risk-free rate was only 2%, long-term stories were valuable. But when 30-year Treasuries exceed 5%, profits that won’t materialize for another decade get discounted to a much less attractive level. Add to that the weekend news about NVIDIA possibly providing around $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI’s data center project. This reminded the market of NVIDIA’s previous “left foot stepping on the right foot” ladder-style play. It’s making the market think that this asset bubble feast is actually too costly to sustain, triggering panic. When U.S. stocks are falling and U.S. Treasuries show no improvement, while other major assets aren’t rising either, it might indicate that funds haven’t completely exited the market but have temporarily shifted to cash to wait and see. This aligns with previous observations of the market waiting for the FOMC decision to land, though the reasoning is different—consider it cross-validation. This also explains why South Korea’s market is falling harder than the U.S. The high long-term yields in the U.S. exert additional capital crowding-out effects on the Korean market. This corresponds with earlier information about foreign investors selling off and exiting en masse. However, the pressure from the ChangXin narrative and internal bearish factors within the AI sector remain real. The entire narrative cannot be completely replaced by the U.S. Treasury logic. If U.S. stocks, KOSPI, and chip stocks crash, the dollar strengthens, and long-term yields remain high, then financial conditions are already being actively tightened by the market itself. Walsh doesn’t necessarily need to raise rates immediately on July 29 but can maintain a hawkish tone, letting high yields and market deleveraging do the Fed’s tightening for them. This coincides with the conclusion observed in the cited text: “The stock prices of AI companies with excessive capital expenditures have effectively executed a rate hike through their crashes.” In summary, this FOMC meeting will most likely hold steady. The answer will be revealed soon. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT, with access to 10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and dividend payouts.