[Fed Decision Preview: Holding Steady Remains the Baseline, Risk of Surprise Rate Hike Cannot Be Ignored] BlockBeats News, July 28 — This week, U.S. stocks face a dual test of interest rates and tech earnings reports. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM; corresponding to 2:00 AM and 2:30 AM Beijing Time on July 30. The current federal funds rate target range is 3.50%-3.75%, and the market still leans toward betting on no change, though the risk of a surprise rate hike has been priced in at roughly one-third. Goldman Sachs' David Mericle team stated that this week's Fed decision is "exceptionally uncertain." They believe that softer inflation data in June has weakened the case for an immediate rate hike, and historically, the Fed rarely raises rates abruptly, so most voting members are unlikely to support action this week. However, market pricing indicates that investors cannot completely rule out the possibility of a 25 basis point hike. JPMorgan's Michael Feroli holds a more cautious view. He argues that the policy framework and communication mechanism reforms driven by Fed Chair Warsh are unlikely to quickly alter the interest rate path in the short term. JPMorgan still expects the Fed to maintain rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, with the next rate hike possibly delayed until September 2027. Feroli also noted that the softened CPI has bought time for the FOMC, but the Fed still retains a tightening bias. In contrast, Renaissance Macro Chief Economist Neil Dutta warns the market to be vigilant about a potential surprise rate hike in July. He believes that stable employment, AI-driven investment boosting demand, elevated oil prices and service inflation, and ongoing tariff pressures could all prompt the Fed to act sooner than expected. For U.S. stocks, the suspense over interest rates, combined with earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, will directly impact risk appetite for high-valuation growth stocks and AI-related trades.