BTC Monday Market Morning Brief: 《Why Did BTC Price Rebound to Around 65,400 on Monday? What Was the Direct Driving Force Behind the Rebound?》 1. The direct driving force was Trump halting military strikes on Iran. Over the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), the U.S. paused its military actions against Iran for the first time in 13 days. On Friday, Trump stopped the strikes, keeping the diplomatic negotiation channel open. Previously, the market had been pricing in expectations of "continued escalation in the Middle East," with oil prices briefly surpassing $100. After the news of the pause in strikes, geopolitical risk premiums began to recede, and BTC naturally stopped its decline and rebounded from around 63,800. This is an "early rebound" driven by geopolitical easing—somewhat unexpected! 2. Is the quick rebound due to BTC buying pressure returning? Let’s analyze the market situation with a few data points: (1) ETF funds are flowing out. On Thursday and Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net outflow of over $465 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone seeing a $212 million outflow on Friday. Institutions are not buying; they’re retreating. (2) Stablecoin inflows have dropped to multi-month lows. Stablecoin transfers to exchanges have fallen to their lowest levels in months, indicating that short-term buying activity is decreasing, not increasing. (3) Insufficient volume. The trading volume during this rebound was only at the 1,600 level, far from reaching the "breakout with high volume" threshold. A low-volume rebound has limited credibility. 3. Can the rebound continue? First, let’s look at the key levels: 65,500–65,800 is the immediate resistance zone. If BTC fails to break above 65,500 with strong volume, this rebound is likely just a "geopolitical easing sentiment recovery" rather than a trend reversal. Next, consider the bigger picture: The FOMC decision is the core variable this week. The market is pricing in a 35.8% probability of a rate hike in July. If Waller signals a hawkish stance, BTC might retest the 64,000 or even 62,500 support levels. My original logic of "dropping to 62,500 before rebounding" still holds; it’s just that the geopolitical variable has moved the timeline forward. However, sentiment recovery does not equal a trend reversal. There will be a lot of information and data this week, making trading more challenging. In the short term, neither long nor short positions are ideal—I recommend staying on the sidelines for now. Short-term fluctuations don’t change the medium-term trend direction or the end-of-bear-market outlook. What’s next for Bitcoin’s mid-term trend and price action? What’s the framework and strategy for buying the dip in spot markets? Check out the in-depth analysis and breakdown in the article below