I really enjoy this kind of friendly discussion. Teacher Mai Tian's comment that crude oil storage may change the peak is already the third one. Thank you very much for taking the time to communicate with me. I am truly very happy. Indeed, crude oil inventories in the market and government emergency reserves of IEA member countries have decreased significantly compared to March. But I don't think just a decrease in inventory is enough to determine that oil prices will definitely break through historical highs. There are three reasons: 1. Historical reasons for several high oil prices From 1973 to 1974: Arab countries imposed oil embargoes on countries such as the United States and voluntarily reduced production. At that time, it was not the market's concern about a possible shortage of oil in the future, but rather the fact that the supply of oil had really stopped, causing prices to rise several times. 1979-1980: Iranian Revolution and Iran Iraq War. Iran's production experienced a significant decline at one point, followed by a war between Iran and Iraq, which continued to affect supply throughout the Middle East. By 1981, OPEC's production had decreased by about a quarter compared to 1978, and oil prices had roughly doubled. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. The oil supply from Iraq and Kuwait has almost simultaneously exited the market, and the market is also concerned that the war will continue to expand to oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, causing a rapid rise in oil prices. But later on, the outcome of the war became clear, other countries increased their supply, and oil prices quickly fell back. 2008: At that time, the global economy had been growing rapidly for many years, and countries such as China and India were rapidly increasing their oil consumption. However, the growth in new production could not keep up, and there were very few temporary increases in production. The market has long been in a state of 'increasing demand, supply unable to keep up'. WTI has been pushed to nearly $147 (the highest in history). After the outbreak of the financial crisis, global demand suddenly declined and oil prices plummeted immediately. 2011-2012: The Libyan Civil War, Arab Spring, and Iran sanctions occurred simultaneously. Libya's oil supply has decreased, and the market is concerned that Iran's exports will continue to decline. At the same time, global demand is still growing, so Brent crude oil will remain above $100 for the long term. In 2022, after the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War, WTI rose to around $130 and Brent approached $140. The war did not end thereafter, but Russian oil continued to flow into the market through new trade routes, while other oil producing countries increased their supply. High oil prices began to suppress demand, and WTI eventually returned to over $60. So the restructuring of trade routes is also an important reason. These are several historical highs, and I won't talk about the latest ones like the United States and Iran. What really pushes oil prices to extreme levels is often determined by supply gaps, inventory, demand, and duration. Inventory is only one aspect, not the only main reason. 2. Self restriction mechanism Inventory release is just one part of it. More importantly, after oil prices became too high, the world began to reduce oil consumption, and other oil producing countries increased exports. According to the latest July report from the IEA, global oil demand in the second quarter of this year decreased by about 4.8 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and the monthly decline in May reached 5.3 million barrels per day at one point. Before the war, the IEA had expected an increase in demand of 850000 barrels per day this year, but now it has been changed to a decrease of about 1 million barrels per day for the whole year. This is the most important self limiting mechanism of high oil prices. The higher the oil price, the more airlines reduce flights, consumers reduce travel, factories reduce production, and governments around the world begin to subsidize, limit prices, or demand energy conservation. At the same time, other oil producing countries will find ways to increase exports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will use more pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and countries such as the United States will also increase their supply. 3. Release of IEA The release of IEA reserves has not yet ended. The 400 million barrel release plan announced in March has already released approximately 290 million barrels as of July 21, with the remaining approximately 110 million barrels still entering the market. IEA member countries still have over 1 billion barrels of emergency reserves controlled by governments. My point of view is that if the war does not continue to escalate, the market will believe that there is still a window for negotiation between the United States and Iran. Local wars are only for obtaining higher discourse power and better negotiation conditions, and the market's concerns are limited. If the war really escalates and the market loses confidence in controlling the trend of the war, then the possibility of oil prices breaking through the sky is very high. For example, when the war between Russia and Ukraine began, but before the war between the United States and Iran, the Russia Ukraine war did not end, but oil prices returned from $140 to over $60. My logic for shorting oil has never been 'the historical high is only $147, so it will never exceed $147 in the future'. My judgment is that short-term prices can skyrocket due to panic, but extremely high oil prices themselves will lower demand, stimulate supply, and increase the motivation for countries to end conflicts. What I need to do is to control my position and ensure that even if I make short-term judgments incorrectly, I have the ability to wait for these changes to occur. Of course, I have repeatedly stated that this is my personal opinion, which may not necessarily be correct, but it is indeed my perception after doing my homework. Perhaps my perception is wrong, which is also very likely, so I will use my own position to pay for my perception.