One of the most noteworthy on chain indicators to determine the bottom of the macro cycle is the supply of Bitcoin at a loss. Price tells us where the market has gone, while loss making supply tells us what psychological changes the chips in the market have undergone. The green line in the graph represents the BTC supply that is currently in a floating loss state across the entire network. Looking back at the past few cycles, a very obvious pattern can be found: every true bottom was accompanied by a rapid surge in loss making supply, reaching extreme regions. At the end of 2018, BTC fell from a high of $20000 to around $3000, causing the market's faith to collapse and a large number of chips to enter a loss making state. However, it was also during this unattended stage that BTC completed its bottoming out. In 2022, LUNA's collapse, Three Arrows Capital's thunderstorms, and FTX's bankruptcy caused the market to experience continuous trampling, with BTC falling to the $15000-16000 range, forcing a large number of short-term speculative chips to leave, and the loss making supply once again reaching its cyclical peak. Why is this indicator so important? Because the essence of the bottom of the market is not how much the price has fallen, but rather that there are fewer and fewer people willing to sell. When the supply of losses reaches an extreme level, it means that a large number of investors have already experienced losses, weak hand chips have been released, and the market has entered the stage of "basically selling out the people who should be sold". At this time, prices are often the ugliest, emotions are the most pessimistic, and news is the most negative, but the biggest opportunity in the market is precisely hidden in this stage where no one is willing to hold it. Return to the current cycle. The biggest difference in this round is that ETFs, institutional funds entering, and corporate treasury allocation have changed the market structure, but the cyclical pattern has not disappeared. If there is another deep adjustment in the future, what needs to be observed is not simply how many dollars fall, but rather: Has the supply of losses returned to the historical extreme region. When a large number of chips bought at high levels turn into losses, and long-term funds begin to absorb these chips, it often means that the market is completing its final reshuffle. The market always has a cruel law: At the top, everyone believes in the future. At the bottom, everyone doubts the future. The real big cycle opportunities often arise after panic. So when judging the next cycle market, we cannot just look at the K-line, but also at: Have the chips been exchanged. Has the market been cleared. And how many people are willing to continue holding onto it in despair. Price determines short-term fluctuations, while chip structure determines long-term cycles. If the next round of major adjustments causes the loss making supply to hit historical highs again, it may not be the end of the cycle, but the most important stage of chip restructuring in the next bull market.