Although I suspect that your account is AI driven, it's not a big deal. I think it may be just a question from a friend, so I will still answer it seriously. However, I am very averse to personal attacks whenever there are different opinions. Different opinions are normal, and friendly discussions are necessary. Who is right or wrong, it's still possible. Firstly, I made it clear in my original text that even if the oil price rises to $140, my position can still withstand it. At the same time, I do not believe that WTI can maintain above $100 in the long run. How high can it reach in the short term and how long can it last at a high level are two separate questions. The former depends on the intensity of blockade, actual supply gap, and market panic, while the latter also needs to consider inventory release, demand disruption, production capacity, policy intervention, and economic recession. Who said that historical highs can seal off oil prices? The unprecedented situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that oil prices can be infinitely extrapolated from supply and demand. The ultimate trading in the market is how many barrels of supply are reduced per day, how long the blockade lasts, whether there are alternative transportation options, how long the inventory can last, and what actions each country will take. 'Unprecedented' only indicates higher uncertainty, and it cannot be directly inferred that oil prices will definitely rise to $180 or $200. I completely agree with your statement that no one can accurately predict whether it's 140, 180, or 200 dollars. So what I did was scenario assessment and risk control, and I didn't claim to know the top of oil prices. On the contrary, while you claim that there is no crystal ball, you also assert that this situation will inevitably break through all historical frameworks, and logically, you are not more rigorous than me. Australia will not sit idly by. What it means is that high oil prices will force the government and central bank to take policy actions, but it does not necessarily mean that the problem can be solved, and it has nothing to do with the so-called 'white left government'. As for the midterm elections, high oil prices cannot determine the election results alone, but they will increase the inflationary pressure and political costs on the ruling party. Even if you believe that losing at least one parliament is unavoidable, it does not mean that the government has no incentive to lower gasoline prices and control losses. You can disagree with my judgment, or you can think that I was wrong to short oil. However, distorting probability judgments into price ceilings, portraying risk tolerance as pure gambling, and using "childish" and "childish" arguments instead, can only indicate that you are more inclined to vent your emotions and have not seriously discussed the issue. The market will ultimately provide the answer, and I will bear my own position and profit and loss.