jasonleo
jasonleo|Jul 23, 2026 17:40
Many people ask why I quickly rebuilt multiple orders after filling out empty ones. The reason is simple, because my medium - to long-term perspective has never changed. In my opinion, the important boundary area of the last bull market was around $60000. At the same time, the mainstream mining cost of Bitcoin is roughly concentrated in the range of $50000 to $60000, which is also the cost support area that I have been focusing on. Last month, Bitcoin quickly recovered after hitting a low of $58000, which further confirmed my assessment of the region's carrying capacity. Therefore, in the absence of systemic risks or significant fundamental changes, I believe that the risk return ratio for continuing to chase short at the current position is no longer high. In the past month, Bitcoin has experienced sufficient volatility and turnover in the $58000-$63000 range. Now that the correction has been completed and it has regained its position around $66000, I believe the market is ready for further upward momentum. I don't rule out the possibility of a bullish candlestick in the market at any time, which could push Bitcoin to break through $72000 and start a new round of upward trend. Additionally, I have two consistent judgments. Firstly, I believe that the overall valuation of the US stock market, especially the artificial intelligence related sector, is already relatively high, and the volatility may significantly increase in the future. Secondly, I believe that the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has significantly decreased compared to the past few cycles. With the continuous inflow of institutional funds and the strengthening of Bitcoin's asset attributes, I believe it is gradually emerging from its own independent market trend. More importantly, I believe that without systemic risk, it will become increasingly difficult to see Bitcoin below $60000 in the future. If there is no significant change in the current market structure, I still believe that Bitcoin has a high probability of challenging $100000 again around March next year. Of course, this is just my judgment based on current market data and trading experience. The market is always right, and once the fundamentals change, I will revise my viewpoint as soon as possible. Also, let me share my risk management ideas. Firmly bullish does not mean that one will not cut losses. Before opening a position, I always define my own risk boundary for any transaction. At present, I have set my own trading expiration range for this position If the market falls back to the range of 61500-64000 US dollars and the trend proves that my judgment is biased, I will close my position as soon as possible, accept the erroneous judgment of this transaction, and will not continue to expand my losses. In my opinion, stop loss is not a failure, but a part of the trading system. What really matters in trading is not making money with every transaction, but keeping losses within an acceptable range when making mistakes in judgment; And when the market proves your judgment is correct, let profits continue to run. Opinions can be changed, but discipline cannot be changed. In the medium to long term, I remain firmly bullish on Bitcoin.
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