10-year Treasury yield continues to hit new highs It has already surpassed the May 18 high of 4.68% and is now hovering around 4.70%. Looking at the weekly chart, this time it not only set a new high but also officially broke through the downward trendline that has lasted for more than three years. If this is a valid breakout, the technicals suggest a new upside potential has opened up. In the short term, I’m watching two levels: 4.81% (near the previous high). If it breaks through, the next target is the much-discussed 5%. I’ve always thought that 5% would most likely be the ceiling for this cycle and unlikely to be breached. But now, based on the technical trend, the possibility of retesting or even briefly breaking 5% can’t be ruled out anymore. In the past, every time the 10-year Treasury yield hit above 4.5%, Trump would start pulling out all kinds of TACO moves, and the market gradually developed a conditioned response. This time, we’re already at 4.7%. Let’s see if the TACO above 4.5% still works this time. If the 10-year yield continues to climb, it won’t be easy for growth stocks. Higher risk-free rates mean valuation discount rates will keep rising. Add to that a stronger dollar and tightening liquidity, and it’s not exactly a friendly environment for AI and tech stocks in the short term.