The Nasdaq is at a critical juncture: will the next phase be a breakout or a major correction? My view is clear: in the coming months, the Nasdaq is more likely to experience a mid-level correction rather than mindlessly hitting new highs. The reason isn’t that the market lacks stories—on the contrary, the current narrative is too strong, and expectations have already been priced in. Since the Nasdaq’s 2023 low, it has seen over two years of strong upward momentum. The driving forces behind this rally: AI industrial revolution + rate cut expectations + global liquidity repricing. Previously, the market was buying into: “AI will change the future.” But now we’ve entered a new phase: the market is starting to validate whether AI can actually generate profits. From “buying the future” to “testing the future”—this is the biggest divergence right now. Technical analysis: High-level consolidation, the market is choosing a direction. Currently, the Nasdaq is still operating within a long-term upward trend, but after hitting the 30,000 level, it has started to consolidate sideways. This signal indicates: bulls haven’t clearly retreated, but new capital isn’t aggressively chasing higher prices either. The market is waiting for new catalysts. The focus moving forward is on two key levels: First resistance: The 30,000–31,000 range. If there’s a breakout with strong volume, it means the market continues to believe in the AI profit cycle, and the Nasdaq could open up new upside potential. However, if it fails to break through for an extended period, it suggests high valuations need time to digest. First support: Around 28,000. This is a critical level for the short-term trend. If it breaks, the market could enter a deeper correction, with the next level to watch around 26,000. What will truly determine the Nasdaq’s future trajectory isn’t just the candlestick chart but three key variables: 1. Federal Reserve policy The biggest consensus in the market right now is: “Rate cuts are coming.” But the question is: if rate cuts are driven by falling inflation, that’s positive. If they’re driven by clear economic deterioration, the market logic could shift entirely. Moreover, if inflation resurges and high interest rates persist for longer, high-valuation tech stocks will undoubtedly bear the brunt. 2. Speed of AI commercialization In the past, the market rewarded: “Who owns AI.” In the future, it will reward: “Who can make money with AI.” Expanding AI capital expenditure isn’t a problem, but if investments can’t quickly translate into profits, valuations will inevitably be repriced. 3. Global risk factors Geopolitical conflicts, dollar liquidity, and debt pressures could all act as catalysts for a high-level market correction. The scariest thing isn’t bad news—it’s the market realizing: the future isn’t as rosy as imagined. What does this mean for bitcoin:native? Don’t fantasize that BTC has completely decoupled from the U.S. stock market. Post-ETF era, BTC is increasingly becoming part of institutional risk asset allocation. If the Nasdaq enters a correction, the stages might look like this: Stage 1: Risk appetite declines. Stage 2: Institutions reduce positions in high-volatility assets. Stage 3: BTC could face additional declines and leverage liquidations. I believe the most likely scenario for the Nasdaq in the coming months isn’t a sudden crash, but rather: high-level consolidation → valuation digestion → waiting for the next liquidity catalyst. As for BTC: in the short term, don’t ignore the risk transmission from U.S. equities. The real big opportunities often don’t appear during the market’s craziest moments but after a liquidity flush.