MU bitcoin:native Something really interesting happened in the market today. The Korean KOSPI surged over 3% at one point, with SK Hynix and Samsung leading the gains. Funds are rotating back into AI capital expenditure trades. But on the other hand, Brent crude oil has already broken past $96. This means the market is simultaneously trading two completely opposite narratives: AI capital expenditure ↑ → Chip demand ↑ → Tech stocks rally Oil prices ↑ → Inflation pressure ↑ → Rate cuts become harder → High valuations under pressure Here’s my clear take: In the short term, AI can still rebound, but if oil prices stay in the $95–$100 range, it’ll be tough for tech stocks to resume their main upward trend. So even if SK Hynix and Micron continue to rebound today, I’m more focused on BTC. Right now, BTC is around $65,600. If Asian tech stocks rally and risk appetite recovers, but BTC still can’t effectively break through the resistance zone ahead, it shows that global liquidity hasn’t truly shifted to Risk-On. Here are the three signals I’m watching next: - Can oil prices drop back to around $90? - Can Micron/SK Hynix hold their ground on a second retest? - Can BTC break out and move past the $60,000 range? If we see: Oil prices ↓ + Chips not hitting new lows + BTC breakout I’ll significantly increase my Risk-On positions. But if oil prices head toward $100, I’ll actually become more cautious. Because the biggest risk in the next market cycle might not be poor AI performance. Instead, it could be — AI performs well, but funding costs become expensive again. Right now, what’s truly determining the ceiling for asset valuations might no longer be growth, but oil prices.