Phyrex
Phyrex|Jul 08, 2026 06:26
I haven’t talked about WTI for almost a week now. I thought we were done with it, but then the U.S. and Iran started clashing again. The main issue is that the U.S. has been directing ships to take the southern route under its protection, but Iran doesn’t allow any ships to pass unless they take the northern route. Since ships can’t use the traditional middle channel, and the mines haven’t been cleared yet, things are stuck. After the U.S. launched an attack on southern Iran, Iran retaliated with a drone strike on the U.S. forces at Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base. Following this, the U.S. State Department announced that Iran had failed to meet its obligations, so they would revoke the sanctions waivers, such as allowing Iran to sell oil, and are preparing to reimpose these sanctions starting July 17. Take note of this date—it’s ten days from now. I wonder if this will lead to a TACO. Why do I feel like the chances of a TACO are pretty high? I’ve repositioned myself in WTI around the $75 mark. Theoretically, the current level just below $73 isn’t bad either, but considering that even if things clear up, it’ll likely hover around $68 in the short term, it doesn’t seem very meaningful. So, I’ll wait and see—at least until it breaks past $73.
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