On July 3rd, I published an article titled *"The July 'Inevitable Surge Curse' Faces Macro Headwinds: Will Bitcoin's Historical Patterns Hold True This Time?"* where I outlined three potential price paths for Bitcoin in July: Path 1 (35% probability): Core consolidation — $58,000-$62,400 Path 2 (45% probability): Extended consolidation — $58,000-$65,500 Path 3 (20% probability): Wide-range consolidation — $58,000-$68,000 I also mentioned: I believe the second and third scenarios are the most likely. Although the third scenario only has a 20% probability, market trends often surprise and exceed expectations. The second and third paths are the most likely outcomes for Bitcoin's trajectory. Let’s wait and see. After yesterday’s absolutely strong four-hour bullish volume, I’m increasingly getting a feeling that the probability of Bitcoin hitting the $68K target during this rebound is quite high! Now the price has bounced back up again to $64,200, and a single spike just liquidated the short positions. This price level feels awkward—neither here nor there—not a great spot to go long. I’ll stay on the sidelines for now.