Latest Bitcoin Market Update: 58000 yuan has been held for the ninth time, but liquidity has dried up, and fluctuations and downturns have replaced smooth and sharp drops Today BTC bounced from 57800 to 59457, and then the four hour volume shrank from 5066 to 2186 and then to 145. After playing, the gas was cut off. Now sliding back to 58464, the market is basically at a standstill. I will open it from four dimensions and explain the current status of the Bitcoin market to my brothers and sisters. 1、 Quantitative energy: Both the 4-hour and daily lines are shrinking At the four hour level, the past three candlesticks have all been bearish, and the volume has decreased from 2186 to 1602 and then to 145- a contraction of 93%. It's not that the bears are slamming, there's no trading at all. At the daily level, during the two days of June 24-25, the bearish volume could drop over 30000 pieces. But on June 30th, it dropped to 19640, and on July 1st, there were only 9000 left. The quantity has plummeted sharply, with the bearish main force not attacking and the bulls not counterattacking. Both sides have stopped. 2、 Financial aspect: ETF is still running, OI is continuously declining Today, the daily net outflow of ETF was about 223 million US dollars, and the pace of institutional withdrawal has not stopped. In June, the cumulative outflow exceeded 4.1 billion US dollars, with a net outflow for seven consecutive weeks. Seller pressure is persistent, not pulse like. OI has decreased from 109178 to 105092, and in the past two days, short positions have taken profits of over 4000 BTC. The bearish main force is closing in an orderly manner, not collapsing. The funding rate is 0.0044%, a moderate positive value. Fear index 11, extreme fear, retail investors are cutting meat. 3、 Market funding situation: The depletion of liquidity is changing the market structure. Who is the buyer in the current range of 58000-59500? Short take profit, Whale taking on 57000-58000, market makers hedging 14.8 billion options on July 4th. Who is the seller? The continuous outflow of over 200 million US dollars from ETFs every day, coupled with panic among retail investors, has led to a loss of interest. The consequence of liquidity depletion is that the decline is not smooth and the rebound is fast. Because the buying and selling orders are very thin, a single large order can push the price up by a few hundred points, and once pushed back, it immediately shrinks back. That's why we saw 57800 quickly bounce back to 59457, and then slide back to 58464 in two days. It's not a trend market, it's a random drift under liquidity depletion. The typical feature of the mid to late stage of a bear market is this: the insertion of upward and downward movements becomes increasingly frequent, and the smoothness of the trend market disappears. As long as there are no new black swans or major bearish events, a sharp decline will not come. But the bearish trend never stops, and every rebound is an empty opportunity. 4、 On July 4th, 14.8 billion options expire: 58000 walls are going to be demolished! The biggest pain point is at 58000. The market maker sold a put option and needs to hedge by placing a buy order below 58000. Every time it falls, hedging triggers buying, and the price bounces back - that's how nine false breaks came about. It's not the bulls taking over, it's the hedging algorithm executing mechanically. But after the delivery on July 4th, all hedging orders were cancelled. 58000 has been tested for real buying. The expiration of the 10 billion option on June 26th is a precedent: there was a tug of war between 58000-61000 before delivery, and 1119 points were directly hit within 4 hours after delivery. This time at 14.8 billion, the scale is even larger, and it is estimated that the price fluctuation of Bitcoin will be quite severe at that time! Inserting pins up and down can be very uncomfortable, making transactions less smooth and comfortable! 5、 What will happen if 58000 is completely lost in the future? It has been ten days and nine false breaks above 58000. If it really breaks through for the tenth time, the defensive force below will shift from short-term copying of the chassis to cost protection for long-term holders. First line: 56500- Large Whale Cost Line. The average cost for a group holding 1000-10000 BTC is around 56500. Large whales have funds, patience, and cargo. If the price hits near their cost line, they will take action to protect the market. This is not algorithmic trading for market makers, it is their real money. This defense line is harder than 58000. Second step: 54000-55000- multi frame resonance zone. Three independent frameworks point to this area simultaneously: one is the technical form, where the measurement targets of the four hour dome and the daily bearish flag are located; The second is on chain valuation, with Glassnode's 1.0 MVRV ranging from 53390-54000; The third is the distribution of trading volume, which is the area of intensive trading in the early stage. It is not a coincidence that three independent frameworks point to the same goal. The third line: 48100- Super Whale Cost Line. The average cost of holding an address with over 10000 BTC is 48100. Super whales are highly profitable and can receive unlimited shipments. This is the ultimate defense against bear markets. Looking down from 58000, it's not a vacuum. But the space between the two lines of defense is not small: 58000 to 54000, with 4000 points in between. If it is a volatile and bearish trend, this road will take some time to walk. If it's the Black Swan Waterfall, it will arrive in two days. The subsequent medium-term trend direction of Bitcoin price is to drop to around 45000 yuan, but the path of decline is bound to be full of twists and turns, and we need to be mentally prepared and have trading strategies in the face of complex market conditions. 6、 Subsequent strategic recommendations In an environment of depleted liquidity, both declines and rebounds will not flow smoothly. The operation is relatively difficult, a few suggestions: Not heavy storage. The next needle in a thin market may break the stop loss. No pattern, fast in and fast out. The trend market has come to an end and is now entering a period of oscillation and decline. Band trading is more suitable for this stage than medium-term holding. The downward direction of the midline remains unchanged, but the downward trend is mainly characterized by oscillation and bearish downturns. Only a big bearish or black swan will trigger a waterfall plunge. Most of the time it's a rhythm of bouncing and sliding. The final core summary is as follows: The four hour long and short positions are not strong, evenly matched, and the daily trading volume is gradually shrinking, which is a real manifestation of the market's liquidity depletion. The bearish main force is closing the net (OI has dropped by over 4000), not attacking. ETF institutions are still experiencing net outflows, with over 200 million US dollars flowing out today. The market has entered a typical state in the middle and later stages of a bear market: volatile and bearish movements have replaced smooth and sharp drops, and upward and downward market movements are becoming increasingly frequent. The direction of short positions remains unchanged, but the approach needs to change - not heavy positions, not pattern, fast in and fast out, and focusing on market fluctuations. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis Market Analysis