In all probability analyses, if consensus becomes too unanimous, the previous 'high probability' might turn into a 'low probability.' That’s why I previously mentioned two types of 'risks/pains': 1. Bottom fishing on the left side, risking long-term bag-holding pain. 2. Missing out on the right side, risking the pain of chasing at higher prices. When the time comes, it’s a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils. Before that, you need to think through these questions: 1. If the price keeps dropping, will you feel anxious if you’re stuck holding? 2. If yes, then keep waiting. What’s your psychological target price? 3. If it starts rebounding before reaching your target, will you feel anxious about missing out? 4. If it does hit your target, how much will you buy? 5. What if you go all-in and the price keeps dropping? 6. If you don’t buy enough and it rebounds later, will you chase it? 7. If you chase it and it drops again, what will you do if you’re out of funds to average down? .......... After going in circles, you’ll realize: Forget it, I’ll just stick to dollar-cost averaging